Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Prepare for Dollar Dormancy

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The market is now full of dollar bulls and the main reason there are so many bulls is due to the strong rally we have seen since May of 2014. Yet, any one left within the dollar bear camp is amazingly still screaming for the demise to the USD. Many have claimed, week after week, that the dollar is about to crash, but, alas, the dollar has had other plans, just as we expected back in 2011.

And, just as we were dollar bullish well before the masses have joined us, we are now going to turn dollar neutral very soon for the intermediate term. To that end, I believe the next year or so will likely frustrate both bulls and bears alike. You see, the market is now approaching the target zone for what we were expecting as the top of wave 3 off the 2008 lows. That means that the multi-year rally I was calling for back in 2011 is approaching a climax for wave 3. And, for those that know how to count, after wave 3 comes wave 4.

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Retracement, Maybe

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I think it’s pretty obvious that we’ll be seeing a test of the all time highs before going much lower, but the perfect bull flag channel on SPX here is saying that we may well see a decent dip to buy first. Key support is at 2070 and if that breaks without first seeing a break of flag channel resistance, it’s still possible that we could see a test of flag support in the 2000-10 area. SPX 60min:

151129 SPX 60min

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