Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Biotech Smack-Up

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During last year’s insane election, Trump made big claims about really taking drug companies to task, reigning in the crazy expenses of medicine, and in general giving the overpaid makers of drugs the kind of smack-em-up they all deserve. Well, right on the heels of his rousing success building a border wall (and having the Mexicans pay for it), completely overhauling the tax system, and sending Hillary to jail, he has, on top of all those successes and promises kept, beat the stuffing out of the drug companies, including the entire biotech sector………

0630-ibb

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3 Things the Charts Are Saying About the 10-Year

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Three things the technical set-up is telling us about the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield:

  1. The Momentum low of the correction after last year’s advance from 1.32% (7/06/16) to 2.64% (12/16/16) was established on 4/18/17 at 2.17%. All of the downside action in yield thereafter, into mid-late June 2017, has been unconfirmed by Yield Momentum.
  2. On 6/14/17, Yield hit its corrective low print at 2.10% off of the December 2016 high at 2.64%, which was accompanied by divergent, much higher Momentum readings. In addition, the 2.10% low represented a 38% retracement of the entire prior major upleg from 1.32% to 2.64%.
  3. The 6/26 minor pullback yield low at 2.12% followed by a sharp upmove to 2.25% on 6/28 represents a successful retest of the 6/14 low at 2.10% and a successful retest of the dominant up-trendline off of the 7/06/16 historic low yield of 1.32%. From a big picture technical perspective, benchmark 10 year Treasury Yield appears to be in very promising technical condition ahead of the initiation of a new upleg that extends its first bull leg from 1.32% to 2.64% towards a projected next target zone of 3.00%-3.15%.

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Finished

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The quarter’s end is upon is, and all in all it’s been a total meh. Month after month, CB-driven lifetime highs on the indexes. I’ve been able to survive this continuing debacle surprisingly well, and one of my many short positions that I’m still cheering is FInish Line. I’ve shown it before, but this is a classic topping pattern which I believe will succumb swiftly to the slightest bit of market weakness, if such a thing is ever permitted again.

0630-finl

Volatility Heats Up…Summer Selloff Ahead?

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The following three ratio charts compare the strength of the NDXRUT, and SPX with their respective Volatility Index.

The following NDX:VXN ratio chart shows that NDX is sitting in a precarious spot at a rising trendline, but well below what is now major resistance. All 3 technical indicators are still in “SELL” mode, as rising volatility outstrips price performance.

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Ten Long Years Ago Today

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It seems like a lifetime ago (particularly considering how miserable the past eight years have been…….) but precisely ten years ago today, I put together a little video of the iPhone launch here in my beloved Palo Alto. As you will soon hear, the audio was pretty bad (I was only 2.5 years into blogging and wasn’t the polished blogger you enjoy these days), but it’s a kick seeing how, even then, the iPhone was a huge deal. (You’ll also notice I had an honest-to-God job with a real office, and that office was right around the corner from a cool little company called Facebook). Anyway, check it out……….

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Are We Having Fun Yet?

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I posted my premarket video on my twitter before the open today as I was going out and wasn’t certain I’d be back before the close and if you missed that you can see that here. What I was talking about on ES here was a high quality falling megaphone that had formed on ES on which pattern resistance had been tested twice overnight. If that continued to hold then the likely retracement targets were either a 50% retracement back to the 2430 area or a move back to megaphone support, hit at lunchtime today at 2408.5 and very possibly bullishly underthrown at the current intraday low at 2402.25. This brings us to another important inflection point.

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And The Failure…….

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Well, my power to type words is diminished since the tool for doing that is starting to fail – – for instance, I cannot type the letter that appears after “A” and prior to “C” – – so I’ll visit Fry’s after the close. Anyway, just yesterday morning, I wrote……..”I suspect this third test of the support shown below will be the last. Just one more bit of meaningful bad news will push us lower enough to magically change the role of that line from support into resistance.”

Let’s hope so………

0628-qqq