Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Small Cap Channel

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indexes like the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials were at lifetime highs just yesterday, whereas the small caps have been lagging fairly badly. What’s interesting to me is the channel on the small caps, shown by way of fund IWM. As you can see, the last time it tagged this lower channel trendline, it rallied mightily (that was, of course, just before the election). Let’s see what happens in this instance, because a trendline break could be a game-changer.


The One Red that Matters

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I’m going to make this post rather fast for one reason: squirrels. You see, the squirrels around town get up at a very specific time, and once they are up and about, it’s all over for me and my dog walk. You’ve never had your arms yanked off quite so swiftly as when a bunch of bushy black tails are scampering around and two very large, strong dogs are intent on pursuing them. So I need to scoot while I have a chance.

In any event, you all know my fixation on crude oil and my bearish positioning on energy stocks. In spite of yet another very green day on ES and NQ, I’m feeling pretty good about this morning, because crude continues to weaken. It seems that the OPEC meeting this month turned out to be just a fake, fabricated, anti-market contra-trend joke, and the true direction of commodities has resumed. I remain gleefully long ERY and DRIP and short a hodgepodge of energy issues, each of which I detailed last weekend.


Partying Like It’s 1999

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I didn’t get to the post in RTH today, so I thought I’d do something different today and have a close look at NDX (Nasdaq 100). This is worth doing as there can be little doubt which index has been driving the bull bus in recent months, so I’ve been looking it carefully and am taking the opportunity to share what I’m seeing there tonight, with my normal mainly SPX-centric view back for tomorrow’s post.

The shorter term setup here is a rising channel from the April low within a larger rising channel from the November ’16 lows. The two channel resistance trendlines are intersecting this week in the 5830 area and that is the obvious target for NDX this week.


A Positive Negative Day

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In spite of a VIX scraping zero and a SPY that fell all of nine hundredths of a single percentage point, my lovingly-crafted portfolio had a good day. I gained 1.6% on the day with my entirely short portfolio, and my “ETF Only” portfolio hit a lifetime high in value. It comprises a mere three instruments: DRIP, ERY, and FAZ. Those are all triple-leveraged.

Those energy ETFs are particular favorites of mine. Here is one of them, which is about to reach escape velocity away from its cup with handle pattern: