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First published on Saturday May 13 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: Without fail, each and every time the metals have dropped since bottoming over a year ago, many panic and proclaim the bear market to have returned. Moreover, many have looked to the USD as their guide to what the metals will do, and are completely befuddled when the dollar trades in tandem with the metals, as we have seen for almost two months.
As for me, well, since I was taught at a young age not to “ASSUME,” I only listen to price and try to ignore emotion as much as humanly possible. For this reason, I rely on my analysis to make decisions, as relying upon emotion often puts you on the wrong side of the market at the exact worst time. (more…)
Further to yesterday’s post, the SPX has filled one prior gap up (in between the blue lines) and is currently filling a second (in between the red lines) (both made in the latter part of April), as shown on the following Daily chart.
At the moment, near-term support sits somewhere around 2320 (price support) to 2338 (external Fibonacci support shown in yesterday’s chart).
A drop and hold below 2320 could see a swift plunge to 2250, or lower and may be influenced by a major change in market perception of Washington’s ability (or inability) to function and produce any meaningful progress on the kinds of economic stimulus programs, tax cuts and reforms, etc., as promised by politicians during last year’s election and, on which, market players were counting, as they invested heavily from that time…particularly, as the Fed reduces its monetary stimulus measures and continues raising interest rates. (more…)
Yesterday’s call for a marginal higher high and rejection worked out ok (buffs fingernails modestly) , even if yesterday afternoon was seriously dull. So now what? Well the first double top target on SPX at 2356/7 has not yet quite been made and that should be tested either this afternoon or tomorrow before we see a likely rally from that area. After that we are looking for a move that should test main double top support at 2322. More details on target areas and support on the charts below. SPX daily chart: