EUR/USD Currency Battle

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The following monthly chart of EUR/USD shows that the Euro has risen to a resistance level (1.2500) at the upper edge of a downtrending channel that began during the 2007/08 financial crisis.

Its next resistance sits at 1.3055, a major Fibonacci resistance level taken from the 2000 lows to the peak prior to to the financial crisis. Fibonacci support sits below at 1.2134.

Momentum is in uptrend on this timeframe and still rising, but has yet to match the all-time high set in March of 2011.

We’ll see whether the recent political rhetoric coming from ECB Chair Draghi and U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will create any chaos in the short or longer term…or whether free-market currency trading carries on with its business-as-usual dealings.

In the short-term, price may be somewhat constrained around this channel resistance level, and some volatility and price consolidation/swings may erupt, until the Euro, either resumes its upward trek toward 1.3055, or falls back to as low as 1.2134, or lower.

In any event, future forward guidance from the Fed and ECB (based on economic data at that time) and their decisions regarding interest rates will, no doubt, have a more meaningful and lasting effect on the price of this Forex pair.