Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Red History Month

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Well, this is the first down month we’ve had since President Courageous Super Business Guy Deal-Making Genius got elected. It’s almost impossible to believe, but we haven’t had a single down month since October 2016. This is also the biggest loss for a February since 2009. Needless to say, I’m pleased we’ve broken this streak. We can see quite plainly the top, the drop, the recovery, and – –  God willing – – the resumption of weakness.

slopechart_$COMP

 

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S&P 500 Index: Near-Term Trendline Apex Support Levels

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The following daily chart (and close-up shot) of the S&P 500 Index is criss-crossed by a number of trendlines. There are a couple of near-term price levels where these intersect at their apex (2730 and 2685). Should both of these be breached with force, we’ll likely see another leg down.

My last post referencing the SPX:VIX ratio offers further details that would corroborate such a downward event…worth monitoring in the days/weeks ahead.

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Interview Just Like Gartman

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One of the most frequent guests in the world of financial media is the “commodity king” Gartman TuxDennis Gartman. In spite of his moniker, he chimes in far more on equities than commodities, and his nearly daily appearances on Fox Business, CNBC, Bloomberg, the trade show circuit, or whoever else will have him, have made him a glowing success story. At least if you measure success by being repeatedly invited back to share market opinions.

As has been pointed out ad nauseam in the comments section of many a blog (particularly ZeroHedge), Mr. Gartman, in spite of his efforts, appears to be wrong far more often than right. Many would say his percentage of being wrong is something approaching 100%, although my own informal analysis puts the figure at a kinder 70% or so.

Oh, and allow me to say this before going further: those of you who feel it clever to comment that people should just do the opposite or whatever Gartman says, or that there should be a triple-inverse Gartman Fund – – you should know the identical comment has been made, oh, thousands of times already, so what may seem clever and saucy to you is, in fact, tired and boring. So save your typing, because the thought you just had isn’t original.

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FIT to be Tied

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Attention, attention, business people of Earth – – – don’t make “one product” companies, at least if the product is physical, and especially if it’s going against some megacap. That goes for you, GoPro. That goes for you GoGo. And it definitely goes for FitBit, now at a 91% loss. You might as well start a company called Word Processing Corporation and go toe-to-toe with MIcrosoft.

slopechart_FIT

Volatility/Index Ratio Death Cross Retests

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In my 2018 Market Forecast post I had identified important major support levels with respect to the Volatility/Index ratios of the S&P 500Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 Indices as follows:

  • SPX:VIX Ratio — 200
  • NDX:VXN Ratio — 350
  • RUT:RVX Ratio — 80

Since that date, these indices corrected by around 10% and their corresponding volatility ratios have produced a bearish moving average Death Cross formation on the daily timeframe, as price plunged below those major support levels.

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