Slope of Hope Blog Posts
This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.
A story making the rounds quite a bit on Tuesday was about the young man who torched his $4 million trading account by betting it all on XIV which, as we all know, got completely destroyed in a manner that most would have never fathomed possible. ZeroHedge featured this story for many hours as its header post.
I like sleuthing around, so I decided to dig deeper into this anonymous fellow who lost all this money. After some digging, I figured out his name was Gregory, he lives in Singapore, and he’s one of those gunslingers that hangs out on Reddit’s “Wall Street Bets” forum. In case there’s any doubt about the youthful male nature of such a place, the animated graphic at the top of the forum leaves nothing to the imagination: (more…)
Someone asked me on Twitter if I’d seen a surge in subscriptions lately. I sure have! It’s either feast or famine for me. Along with this fantastic selloff, which has done wonders for my portfolio, my little business of Slope is also thriving!
So in order to encourage more of you to subscribe (you can learn about the PLUS membership here), I have added yet another two cool new features to SlopeCharts: Unadjusted Data and Earnings Information.
As most of you know, the chart data is back-adjusted to take into account splits and dividends. This means the chart avoids the kinds of “gaps” you might see if you just blithely chained the historical price data today. However some people WANT unadjusted data, perhaps to review historical trades at the prices they really took place at, etc. I’m pleased to say you can now choose between adjusted and unadjusted data with a simple checkbox in the Preferences:
Well that was interesting yesterday, and that was a really impressive move on equity indices that finally ended the longest trading period in SPX history without a 5% retracement. The mindless bullish euphoria has ended for the moment and overall we should be back in a more two way market environment for a while. In terms of this current move we may now have started a retracement to take us into April or May.
In the video below I’m looking at today’s rally. The obvious target on ES would be the 50% retracement in the 2700 area and Stan is looking at the 2700-40 area. After that the odds favor a retest of the overnight lows, which were of course well below yesterday’s RTH lows. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)
Just a few trading days ago I did this post and shared this chart:
I think it’s clear the bottom was reached last night during GLOBEX action (and, umm, Dennis). I’m delighted. Bulls, please bid stuff up! Make America Great Again! You can do it!
I’ll be sharpening my sling blade in my shed in the meantime. Mmm-hmm.
Quite the morning so far, eh? It’s only 7:20, and I’m ready to call it a day. All this mayhem, honestly, I could do without.
Here’s where I am at:
- Have trimmed from 200% short Monday morning to maybe 75% short now. In other words, I’m not even using all my cash buying power. I am still “in the game” with 30 shorts, but I’ve definitely pulled WAY back.
- I have watched with some dismay at some of the puts I sold yesterday leap another 40-60%, but what can ya do. Hey, at least my entire net worth isn’t in XIV, right?
- I now have to do what I am absolutely awful at, which is be patient. The market is going to be very skittish now, so a “fight back” to decent shorting levels isn’t going to easy.
- Importantly, Dennis Gartman called for a big bear market last night (around the lowest levels of GLOBEX trading, naturally), so that gives me some confidence I’ve made the right choice.
Good morning, Slopers. Let’s do a bit of odds and ends from top-of-mind:
- NEW RECORD in usage for SlopeCharts. I seriously don’t know why anyone would use anything else. It is all I ever use. Ever. And it’s getting better all the time. We added some cool new features this weekend, but, ummm, current events have precluded from me announcing them.
- I woke up about every two hours last night. At one point, both ES and NQ were green, so I figured some dumb-ass announcement had been made. They’re quite red again, so I guess not.
- I haven’t mentioned it yet, but yesterday I bought puts again the EUR/USD. It’s a nice, clean trade and away from the madcap insanity we’re witnessing in equities.
- I have mentioned repeatedly, especially on tastytrade, how my target price for a Bitcoin low (for now, at least) would be $6,000. NAILED IT! So do I get to wear a fuzzy wig now?
- The VIX was at an 8-handle a month ago. Now it’s around 50, for the first time since the glorious days of early 2009. Can you freaking BELIEVE it? And the hydrogen bomb that’s been dropping on VIX shorts has been just astounding to watch. Historic!
Probably the key thing I have to say is this, and mark my words: the Republicans are going to get completely destroyed in the mid-terms. Yeah, I know the election is nine months away, and I know a lot can happen in nine months. But this nine-year bull market is DEAD, and that will still be evident by November.
Just Trust your friend Tim. The Trump revolution is over. And I say this not from a partisan standpoint, because I really couldn’t care less who won in 2016. Both of them sucked.