Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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We could see a tepid recovery of yesterday’s “shock drop” in equities (as I described here), until the Fed’s next interest rate hike (possibly in March), to send Major Indices to levels somewhat higher than their recent all-time highs. But, we’ll likely see higher volatility remain in play and, possibly, more wild price swings, until then.
As I promised in that post, here’s January’s month-end summary.
DOW 30 INDEX
The first daily chart shows that the Dow 30 Index failed to fill yesterday’s gap down and closed 100 points above its low of the day.
I first want to apologize for being so non-productive today. I’m pretty sick, so I’ve been spending an exorbitant amount of time in bed surrounded by concerned (well, maybe not) dogs. But Slope must go on, so I wanted to crank out something.
Facebook reported after the close, and although it looks pretty much unchanged at the moment, it was a wild ride so far. I’m on my computer ALL the time, but even I’m amazed Facebook makes as much money as they do. I guess I’m having trouble seeing it, because I spent, tops, 20 minutes a MONTH on Facebook, if that. Anyway, they say they are seeing usage start to slip a bit.
Today and tomorrow are huge days for tech stocks. Tomorrow is Apple and Amazon (the latter of which I think is the most important of all psychologically, as I’ve stated). After the close today, however, is Facebook and Microsoft, both shown below. Let’s just say they’re priced for perfection. I have positions in neither of them.
It’s heartening, I suppose, to see that the investing public was only reeled in by the preposterous, never-ever-going-to-happen $1,500,000,000,000 infrastructure plan touted by Trump last night. The ES and NQ were roaring last night, but they’ve puked away their hearty gains. Of course, the real show starts at 11:00 a.m. Slope time.
This is a shameless comment cleaner, but I got up even earlier than normal this morning with the same big-ass Nikon lens I got last August’s eclipse with and photographed the blood blue moon. I think the heavens have conspired to celebrate Yellen’s departure.
The following two monthly charts show that 10-year Treasury Yields ($TNX) are on the rise.
The first chart shows that it has popped above the upper edge of a very long-term downtrend channel and is headed for near-term major resistance at 30.00.
The second one shows that price has broken above a -1 standard deviation level of a long-term downtrending regression channel.
Whether or not 30.00, if reached, would have any real negative impact on equities, may be looked at in context as to where it was at its height in 2007 (just prior to the financial crisis) and the economic conditions in play at that time, compared with current conditions (as well as the financial soundness of the major banks). (more…)