Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

January 2018 Market Wrap-Up

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We could see a tepid recovery of yesterday’s “shock drop” in equities (as I described here), until the Fed’s next interest rate hike (possibly in March), to send Major Indices to levels somewhat higher than their recent all-time highs. But, we’ll likely see higher volatility remain in play and, possibly, more wild price swings, until then.

As I promised in that post, here’s January’s month-end summary.


The first daily chart shows that the Dow 30 Index failed to fill yesterday’s gap down and closed 100 points above its low of the day.


A Loss of Face

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I first want to apologize for being so non-productive today. I’m pretty sick, so I’ve been spending an exorbitant amount of time in bed surrounded by concerned (well, maybe not) dogs. But Slope must go on, so I wanted to crank out something.

Facebook reported after the close, and although it looks pretty much unchanged at the moment, it was a wild ride so far. I’m on my computer ALL the time, but even I’m amazed Facebook makes as much money as they do. I guess I’m having trouble seeing it, because I spent, tops, 20 minutes a MONTH on Facebook, if that. Anyway, they say they are seeing usage start to slip a bit.

fb (more…)

10-Year Treasury Yields on the Rise

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The following two monthly charts show that 10-year Treasury Yields ($TNX) are on the rise.

The first chart shows that it has popped above the upper edge of a very long-term downtrend channel and is headed for near-term major resistance at 30.00.

The second one shows that price has broken above a -1 standard deviation level of a long-term downtrending regression channel.

Whether or not 30.00, if reached, would have any real negative impact on equities, may be looked at in context as to where it was at its height in 2007 (just prior to the financial crisis) and the economic conditions in play at that time, compared with current conditions (as well as the financial soundness of the major banks). (more…)

Said and Done

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Completely by chance, I stumbled across this video of a 17 year old high school junior named Sam Berns who had an extremely rare disease that aged him at a highly accelerated rate. Even though he was 17, he looked 90. I clicked the link out of curiosity, but I was transfixed for the entire video.

As I was watching it, I thought to myself, “He looks so frail – – I wonder if he’s still alive.” But I soon found out that a very short time after this video was made, he died – – basically of “old age”, in spite of being in high school. The simple truth is, not all of us become the men we once hoped we might be. But we are all God’s creatures.  I hope you find the video inspiring.

Island Top on SPX

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Well obviously SPX didn’t do the higher high that I would have preferred, and this morning’s gap down broke down through rising wedge support and also gapped back through the open breakaway gap up from 2839.25. This currently leaves a decent quality island top on SPX and an open breakaway gap down from 2853.53 that I wouldn’t expect to see filled until the current decline is finished.

No clear reversal pattern yet, though there is a poor to medium quality H&S option that I have marked on the chart below. The minimum targets I would generally be looking for on a break of a rising wedge like this are the 38.2% or 50% retracement targets in the 2797 or 2773 areas respectively. SPX 60min chart:

180130 SPX 60min (more…)