Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
One way of looking at markets is as a succession of inflection points or probability forks, at which there are generally a higher and lower probability option which, once taken, take the markets to the next in that series, either eliminating or significantly changing the paths not taken at that inflection point.
We’ve been looking for one of those inflection points to happen at about this time, and in about this area, and that is likely to be resolved over the coming week, so in this Memorial Day post I’ll be looking at that and what the shorter and longer term implications of the direction taken from that on SPX.
I found an interesting article that has similar experiences similar to mine. Chinese stuff produced by quasi-SOE companies are incredibly cheap. Here, with telecom, 30-40% cheaper than the competition. Even with a 25% tariff, this stuff would still be cheaper than ANY of the competition. Your goal when you undercut your competition by 30-40% isn’t profit.
Trump will fold when the SP500 reaches 2000-2200 technical levels. At that point instead of seashells, Trump is going to take whatever the Chinese offer him. The Chinese know the game of face much better than Trump. They’ll give him two cold egg rolls and an egg-foo-young to be named later – targeted to make Trump’s base happy. In exchange, the CCP will get what they want: 1) IC and IP and 2) use Trump as a scapegoat for any economic problems in China.