In this post I would like to offer the bears (if I may dare to use the plural) some succor.
We begin with the $XAX, the Amex Major Market Index, which is in the throes of completing a terrific topping pattern. It isn’t done yet, but by God, it’s working on it. It needs to break the horizontal.
The Broker/Dealer Index ($XBD) is likewise “in the works”, with the head and shoulders top about 85% complete. Clearly the neckline must be breached for this to be considered a valid topping pattern.
The bank ETF, KBE, was smashed lower a few months ago, thanks to the destruction of several huge banks. I’d like to point out that a similar mega-top took place before the Covid crash.
The homebuilder index, XHB, is still threatening to at least retrace back to its supporting trendline.
XLF, the finance sector ETF, is a bit messier, but pay close attention to that lower horizontal Break that, and you could see an extraordinary selloff in the second half of this year.
Finally, for a long-term view, here is the entire history of XLU. I purchased puts on this Friday, based on the exquisite diamond pattern, which I have tinted in yellow.
