I was going through my charts for the stocks I had been posting about and had a realization that seemed too obvious after the fact. Half of the stocks I mentioned in my previous two posts were biotech stocks. And I had added them all to my bearish stocks list. So I decided to pull up the Biotech ETF and see what was going on:
Starting from 2002, this sector was a volatile one. It dropped by more than 50% in 2002 from highs of $35 to $14. It bounced back to a choppy range until 2008 when it peaked and dropped again. This time, however, it only dropped 33% from its peak of $30 to just about $20 when it bottomed, pretty much beating the S&P500 during that same time which experienced a 57% drop.
So biotech seemed like the place to be. Furthermore, it actually started beating its 2008 highs after only 2 years by 2010, a feat which the S&P500 would not experience for another 3 years. Ever since then it has been on a monstrous move higher, only showing weakness in the last 2 years. In fact, this sector peaked in September 2021, a full 2 months before the tech/Nasdaq peak. And now, on the monthly chart, we are in a small consolidation underneath the 20 and 50 Month Moving Averages.
This feels more and more bearish. And I am curious if this will be the sector that, instead of leading us up as in 2009, perhaps this will be the leading indicator to the downside. I don’t have a lot of fundamental knowledge of this sector, but what I do know is that often biotech companies have negative earnings as they mostly survive on lots of capital injections from investors looking for the next surprise pharma product. And now that rates are being kept higher (and going higher), the money that pushed them up so long is now too expensive. Perhaps this will be the first bubble to truly deflate in the next year.
A note of caution, however, in that this sector is made of up stocks which thrive on volatility. What I mean is, because investors in these stocks are looking for surprise products/FDA approvals, they have a tendency to pop and fly, so short these carefully, use stops at least or better yet use options to limit losses. I myself am picking my spots, but the entire sector ETF looks susceptible. Stop is above 136.
First target for the ETF is 110 (at that trendline), but I think given this consolidation is on the monthly chart and can’t get above these averages for a good while, I’d aim for at least $100. Then $80 is the far target around that 200 Month Moving Average. Even farther down is last support from 2009 breakout, but I don’t see us getting down there unless there is an entire meltdown of the economy, which I don’t have a good speculation on right now.
