Let’s start off with a quote from the boys down in Gainesville:
Our experience with second-wave retracements is that you have to be patient to let the market trace out all of its subwaves. It’s a challenge emotionally, particularly in a bear market, because the goal of a second wave is to recreate the bullish spirits of the prior peak. By its end, investors are convinced the bull market is either back or intact. It’s the paradox of market behavior.
I’m not much of an Elliott Wave guy, but I do think they work rather impressively in bear markets. If the agonizing climb from October 13 until early July 2023 was indeed “Wave 2”, it would actually make a lot of sense. Off the top of my head, what I’m witnessing is:
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