Looks like Powell won. No matter how high interest rates get cranked, and no matter how much debt the nation issues, assets just keep going higher. They’ve been doing it practically nonstop for nine months now, and even after yesterday’s latest ramp bump, and warning there may be more to come, the screen is fully green.
At the same time, volatility is evidently heading to naught. We have, over the course of a year, gone from a VIX in the 30s to a VIX not even in the teens.
For me, my long ideas have been doing great (like Rivian, up 75% in the past few weeks, and sweetgreen, up about 52%) whereas my short plays have blown up in my face. My finger was twitching yesterday to take profits on my META puts, and I didn’t listen. So I’m going to dump these today and am seriously considering, on the short side at least, to focus strictly on high-volume ETFs. These individual stock surprises are a bit tough to stomach. This environment is extremely hostile to positions like this.
As I mentioned 24 hours ago, and have noted for weeks now, once the inverted H&S was completed on the /ES at the start of June, there was nothing bearish left about the chart. As it stands now, the lifetime high is beckoning, and it’ll only take a few more percentage points for the S&P 500 to cross into territory it has never seen before.
Time to thumb through the day’s newspaper and gird myself for the day’s battle ahead.
