Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Today's rally was very impressive in percentage terms. How much higher could we go from here?
I have barely done any general market analysis yet, but one thing I will say is that, judging from the Russell 2000 chart, getting another 15% before severe resistance seems quite plausible.
This is certainly not a projection, and the time scale isn't meant to be accurate. My point is simply that, given the almost non-stop plunge that took place over the past three weeks, there is ample room for upside with very little resistance until we get back to, oh, about 800 on the S&P and just under 8,000 on the Dow.
I am presently short the /ES and will happily cover if we get anywhere close to 700. I would be very happy to be a buyer at lower prices, since I think today's push higher will do a lot to get some much-needed confidence out there.
OK, OK, I am obsessing, I know. But I've just got to get this off my chest. Again.
As my post early today stated, I bought 28 /ES at an average price of $674. I stupidly set my stop too tight and – – with what I am convinced was a deliberate "run" by a market maker – – got blown out with a meager $1,000 profit. By the end of trading day, those same 28 contracts had a profit of $58,800.
Piss. Me. Off.
Now, as traders every day – – every hour! – – is filled with "coulda beens." But this one really stings. One thing is for sure – – I'm not going to have stops set too tightly again on the /ES, particularly during after-hours! Because there is real truth to what I've heard about the scoundrels out there. Here's a graph below showing what an insignificant "blip" the take-down was in the grand scheme of things.
Now one might rightly ask……..why didn't you simply re-enter the position? In retrospect, this is obviously a sensible question. Last night, though, I felt it would be "chasing" the trade to re-enter it. The entry point I had was a good one, and it isn't wise to jump back into trades just for the sake of getting back in (at a higher price), because that often compounds the error.
Anyway – – the irony is that it was actually a good day for me all around. But my profits would have been double but for this one simple mistake. Shame on me!
My three central pleasures in life are: music, wine, and my beloved children. Music is profoundly important to me, and one of my favorite CDs of all time is Elvis Costello's Juliet Letters, which is nothing short of genius.
I managed to find the video below of one of the best tracks from that CD. The song is about a "family" law practice and a letter a man is writing to them who is in the throes of a divorce.
As the sun beats down and life begins to complicate/Will we both incinerate/If we touch that brass name-plate
The only one of my four portfolios that has had a lousy 2009 is my IRA, which relies on (a) all long positions (b) all battered positions (c) puny position sizes. Until recently, I was down about 20% for the year on this one.
A day like today is just the kind of thing to goose it. In spite of bad 2009 performance thus far, my strategy is unaltered; I am highly confident I am going to nail at least a 100% gain on this portfolio within the next six months. Here's today's performance, captured earlier………