Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

How High Could We Go?

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Today's rally was very impressive in percentage terms. How much higher could we go from here?

I have barely done any general market analysis yet, but one thing I will say is that, judging from the Russell 2000 chart, getting another 15% before severe resistance seems quite plausible.

This is certainly not a projection, and the time scale isn't meant to be accurate. My point is simply that, given the almost non-stop plunge that took place over the past three weeks, there is ample room for upside with very little resistance until we get back to, oh, about 800 on the S&P and just under 8,000 on the Dow.

I am presently short the /ES and will happily cover if we get anywhere close to 700. I would be very happy to be a buyer at lower prices, since I think today's push higher will do a lot to get some much-needed confidence out there.

Seething Over Stop-Out

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OK, OK, I am obsessing, I know. But I've just got to get this off my chest. Again.

As my post early today stated,  I bought 28 /ES at an average price of $674. I stupidly set my stop too tight and – – with what I am convinced was a deliberate "run" by a market maker – – got blown out with a meager $1,000 profit. By the end of trading day, those same 28 contracts had a profit of $58,800.

Piss. Me. Off.

Now, as traders every day – – every hour! – – is filled with "coulda beens." But this one really stings. One thing is for sure – – I'm not going to have stops set too tightly again on the /ES, particularly during after-hours! Because there is real truth to what I've heard about the scoundrels out there. Here's a graph below showing what an insignificant "blip" the take-down was in the grand scheme of things.

Now one might rightly ask……..why didn't you simply re-enter the position? In retrospect, this is obviously a sensible question. Last night, though, I felt it would be "chasing" the trade to re-enter it. The entry point I had was a good one, and it isn't wise to jump back into trades just for the sake of getting back in (at a higher price), because that often compounds the error.

Anyway – – the irony is that it was actually a good day for me all around. But my profits would have been double but for this one simple mistake. Shame on me!

Jacksons, Monk, and Rowe

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My three central pleasures in life are: music, wine, and my beloved children. Music is profoundly important to me, and one of my favorite CDs of all time is Elvis Costello's Juliet Letters, which is nothing short of genius.

I managed to find the video below of one of the best tracks from that CD. The song is about a "family" law practice and a letter a man is writing to them who is in the throes of a divorce.

As the sun beats down and life begins to complicate/Will we both incinerate/If we touch that brass name-plate

The IRA Strategy Works For a Change

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Nice to get a big up day, isn't it?

The only one of my four portfolios that has had a lousy 2009 is my IRA, which relies on (a) all long positions (b) all battered positions (c) puny position sizes. Until recently, I was down about 20% for the year on this one.

A day like today is just the kind of thing to goose it. In spite of bad 2009 performance thus far, my strategy is unaltered; I am highly confident I am going to nail at least a 100% gain on this portfolio within the next six months. Here's today's performance, captured earlier………