Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Dow 30 Beneath Fibonacci

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It may sound ironic (or even masochistic), but I'm actually more optimistic than ever about the prospect of a resumed tumble in the market. I lost money today, but only about half what I made yesterday, so over the past two days, I'm still in good shape. I also managed to preserve some profits by exiting my SRS position earlier today, since it seemed uncharacteristically weak. I trimmed my FAZ position in half, since the strength in the financials is holding up better than I imagined.

I noticed that for both the $INDU and the $TRAN, today's high price butted right up against the underside of a major Fibonacci retracement level. This retracement series spans 1974 to 2007, so it's definitely the biggie, and it's acting just like it did around January 6th of this year when it peaked. Here's the $INDU:

The 800 level on the S&P is within spitting distance. If we charge right past it, well, I guess maybe the countertrend rally we've all been waiting for is really here. If we get a meaningful failure around that level, I think we could ride the S&P back to the 730 target.

Could FAS Be Breaking Out?

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It's important to keep an open mind to the markets, even when an insight may be contrary to an existing position. I have a bunch of FAZ right now (double-bearish on financials), but its dopperganger symbol, FAS, looks like it might have done a clean breakout above its descending channel.

A move above 5.90 would be bullish for this vehicle. For myself, my FAZ stop is quite predictable – – 32.56.