Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Covering Salmon

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I have sold 10 of my 40 "lottery picks" in my IRA, leaving 30 in place with tighter stops.

The reason is simple – – – the runup in C and BAC is a bit insane. The one and only reason these companies still exist is because they are being artificially propped up by the government. The 100% to 150% run-ups in price over the past week are terrific, but I think they're about done.

I enjoyed gains of between 30% and 70% during the past week in my closed lottery plays, but the risk outweighs the marginal potential reward at this point. Mind you, I wish I'd held on to my FAS position. I bought it a week ago and sold it at a 30% profit, and it has continued to soar much higher. But the beauty of these lottery plays is that they are small enough to permit me to "let them ride" without causing undue risk.

I am sitting on a loss with FAZ, but I have added to this position today. I don't normally average down, but this is a position I believe is going to pay off in the end.

Gentle Ben

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Last night, there was a widely-heralded interview with Ben Bernanke in which he assured everyone that (a) the recession would wrap up this year in all likelihood, which means the economic bottom is just months away; (b) the banks were going to be fine and dandy. The markets reaction was……

This comes almost exactly one year after, on March 8, 2008 (when the S&P was at 1275) Bernanke said: ""At the Federal Reserve, we will continue to forcefully deploy all the
tools at our disposal as long as necessary to support the restoration
of financial stability and the resumption of healthy economic growth."

I find it puzzling that, time and again, such governmental reassurances are embraced as gospel sources of comfort.

In any event, I still see the area just below 800 as a huge brick wall through which the S&P will have tremendous trouble getting past. I got stopped out of the /ES last night at 755 (and this time, I certainly didn't regret it……….) and re-entered a smaller position at 762. I will continue to tilt at this windmill until the /ES gives up the ghost, or until it's clear that 800 is going to be conquered after all.