Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Well, as I've said earlier, it was a good day for the bears, but one day does not a trend make nor an old trend break. I'd like to see a down move just as hardy on Tuesday before getting too excited. I took some profits today in some large short positions, and I'm going to remain "half-committed" until I see stronger evidence that the path toward 880 is wide open.
In the meantime, here are a few major charts and my thoughts on each of them. The NASDAQ, below, has come full circle from its breakout a couple of weeks ago. All those gains are zeroed out now. The big decision at this point is whether the weakness continues. The gap has been filled and there's some support at the Fibonacci fan line. My gut-feel is that we'll recover some of the lost ground tomorrow and then resume the drop on Wednesday. But, honestly, that's just a wild guess.
The ES paints a clearer picture. We see very formidable resistance above at 935, and a pretty clear free-fall to 880. Even if we noodle around between 920 and 935, I think the 880 level is a pretty plain destination.
The Russell 2000 also has a lot of dead air under it. I'd say this will head back down to about 475 or so if the S&P makes it to 880.
I'm still short USO, and a drop to the low 30s would make (a) a great place to cover and (b) potentially a great place to reverse the position.
That's it from me. Good night!
I just wanted to draw your attention to this fascinating little article that Urszula sent me. Here's an excerpt:
There are meetings being held
Monday and Tuesday in Yekaterinburg, Russia, (formerly Sverdlovsk)
among Chinese President Hu Jintao, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev
and other top officials of the six-nation Shanghai Cooperation
Organization. The United States, which asked to attend, was denied
admittance. Watch what happens there carefully. The gathering is, in
the words of economist Michael Hudson, "the most important meeting of the 21st century so far."
It is the first formal step by our major
trading partners to replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
If they succeed, the dollar will dramatically plummet in value, the
cost of imports, including oil, will skyrocket, interest rates will
climb and jobs will hemorrhage at a rate that will make the last few
months look like boom times. State and federal services will be reduced
or shut down for lack of funds. The United States will begin to
resemble the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe. Obama, endowed by many with
the qualities of a savior, will suddenly look pitiful, inept and weak.
It was a terrific day, but I'm rather underexposed – – – I'm staying a skosh cautious since we've had so many "one day wonders". I need to do some stuff, but I'll be back later to share my latest thoughts on the markets.
My precious metals shorts have done well for me; GLD now has broken a major trendline. Precious metals could be in serious trouble now.
The disparity between OIH and UNG has caused a lot of traders to take notice. Today, with pretty much all assets down in value, UNG is up over 6% – very impressive! You can see in the graph below how there's a huge gap between the price of OIH (shown in blue) versus UNG (shown in black). The market appears to be in the process of reducing the size of this gap.
I haven't been posting much of anything this morning because things have simply been going to plan. When things are going well, there's not much to say. There's not much to do, either, except tighten up stops. I will say that I've lightened up on my gold shorts, since those could be finding a soft area of support area here. Equities remain vulnerable until 880 on the S&P, so I'm letting all those positions ride.
It's been a super morning so far. Gold and oil are getting smashed (huzzah!) and equities are quite soft.
I think the bears are going to take the upper paw here. As I've said a number of times, 880 is my target for this little tumble. There isn't anything I'd be long right now, except for the ultrashorts. Here's the /ES: