Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Crucial Shelf of Support

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There is just one number to keep in mind Wednesday, and that is 880 – – if the S&P breaks 880, the bears are going to seize more control; if we keep above 880, and particularly if we rally back into the low 900s, the bulls are going to get a renewed sense of confidence. The shelf of support at 880 is a key line in the sand.

0624-$spx

Looking at the daily chart, the bulls have 925-950 as a serious area of overhead supply they would have to push above in order to really run with the market again. I personally think the failure to launch above 950 in the first half of June is serious enough to give the bears some comfort. But, let's face it, FOMC days are weird, and who knows what is going to be said or how the market is going to react. The desire of the market to be able to make it to June 30 with some hefty gains intact is going to be very strong, and there are six trading days left in the quarter. The bulls are going to do everything they can to use that headwind to their advantage.

0624-$spxdaily

It remains very important to keep an eye on the currency markets. The EUR/USD, shown below, seems more likely to soften than strengthen to me, given its behavior the past eight months. I re-entered a big USO short position near the close of trading Tuesday, since I view Tuesday's weakness in the dollar as a one-hit wonder.

0624-$eur

Just to add some tremors to my own trading life, I'm going to be taking a plane ride back to the Bay Area for a meeting Wednesday, and I'll be landing at just about the time the Fed announcement comes out. I tend to step aside for at least 20 minutes after such announcements anyway, but it'll be interesting to land and fire up the iPhone to see what gymnastics the market is going through.

I don't have much more to say, since today wasn't that interesting. I'm pretty much out of all my big positions, except for shorts in QQQQ and USO, but I took most of my big boys off the table late on Monday. Thanks for swinging by.

RTH Again

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The retail ETF (RTH) is finally showing a potential of cracking its support. If it can break the $75 level, the bears will get the upper hand on this sector:

0624-rthclose

A longer-term view shows the very large head & shoulders pattern. A break under recent support could easily get us back into the lower 60s. This is my largest options position.

0624-rth

As for the market in general, the poor /ES has been bouncing like a rubber ball between 890 and 895 for the past couple of hours; the market is trying to figure out to do with itself. I imagine the fireworks are going to get held off until the FOMC announcement tomorrow, so this will probably be a relatively mellow day.

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