Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Waves

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First off, the folks at Elliott Wave International wrote me today saying they are kicking off a 17-city How to Trade in a Fast-Moving Bear Market tour from September 4, 2009 to February 2, 2010. You might want to click on the link to see if they'll be anywhere near you, since I really like their work and – – assuming this danged bear market fires its engines up sometime again – – I have found Elliott Wave to be helpful as we stairstep our way down.

Second – speaking of the same folks – here is a graph from their Short Term Update tonight (they allow me to occasionally republish graphs from time to time here) which I like:

0629-nasdaq

As usual, click on the graph to see a bigger version – but it does a nice job labeling the past year of market activity. The horizontal line marked as a .382 retracement is the crucial line in the sand. Either the countertrend rally has exhausted itself (which would agree with the "2" labeling), or what we experienced over nearly four months was simply the first phase of a more hefty push higher.

My money is at least oriented toward the notion of a meaningful "B" wave down, but not cracking March's lows yet. What would harm me the most – and this is why I'm relatively lightly positioned right now! – would be a swift rise above that line, prompted either by (1) end-of-quarter window dressing on June 30 or (2) a surprisingly bullish jobs report Thursday morning.

You know what three words are next………..we shall see!

One More Day

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Well, Q2 2009 is a quarter I'd just as soon permanently forget. It's been a tremendous amount of work for absolutely no profit. I am hoping that July 1 will bring us some relief, so I'm just biding my time until then. I've got about half the positions I would have if I were feeling really confident.

As for the /ES, we're less than a point away from breaking any potential of a true H&S pattern.

0629-es

I'm content letting the final day of the quarter burn by. I've got dozens and dozens of ideas waiting in the wings, but I'm not going to move forward on any of them until right near the close on June 30, at the earliest.

The Risk of Lottery Plays

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From mid-March until this month, low-priced, high-risk issues have been the backbone of my 401-k. They are definitely losing their steam, though, and it's also becoming evident that there are reasons these issues were battered in the first place

Take Lear Corp (LEA), for instance. This stock had a great run-up in the yellow tinted area, shown below. I did pretty well on this ride up. I then "re-loaded" when it headed back toward its trendline, and at first, this seemed like shooting fish in a barrel (see green tint). But look what happened – – it failed to exceed its prior high, it broke its trendline, and it absolutely fell to pieces.

0629-lea

Bear this in mind with such securities – – they are anything but "blue chip!"

Warm and Fuzzies

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Over the years, I've received many hundreds of emails from readers, 99.9% of them friendly and positive – – I got one on Sunday that stands out as particularly nice, and I'd like to share it with you (the sender provided his permission):

Hi Tim,

I hope you are enjoying your "vacation away from slope"
this week. I've never been one for waterskiing, but I am so glad you
are willing to give it a try again.

I just wanted to say thank
you to you and all the Slopers for everything that you have done for me
over the last few months. I was laid off in March (on the chopping
block and bored since January) and new to trading at the time.

Since January, I have found a new "job" here at Slope. I went full time the day I got laid off.

First,
I can't begin to tell you how much I have learned from the Slope. I am
a better trader as a result of all that I have learned here. Period.
Stochastics, chart patterns, option pricing…the list goes on and on.

More importantly, however, has been the community. Sitting at home
alone, all day, applying on line for jobs is really lonely and
discouraging. But with the community on Slope I felt like I had some
one to share the glorious ride down in March, the ridiculous upswing,
and painful tape since. Some of the hardest things about losing a job
are losing a sense of purpose and community, and I found both of them
here on Slope.

I write this to you today because it is my last day before starting
my new full time job at the American Red Cross. I am very excited about
the opportunity, but will miss cavorting all day with everybody on
slope. I'll stop by now and again, but just wanted to say thank you.

All the Best,
Sanjay Purohit (Butterstick)


Thanks, Sanjay! I agree that we've got a terrific community here.

Below is my victorious water skiing on Sunday, against all odds (or at least in direct confrontation of my fears of icy-cold water and general ineptness). Believe me, taking one hand off the tow was an act of faith.

0628-ski

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