Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Not So Easy, Is It?

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First off, I want to express my continued thanks to CHES; I haven't seen you-know-who in the comments section in ages. Thank you, guys! Thank you!

Second, I guess the bulls that took the easy ride up during the past three months are confused about the past couple of days. Isn't the market supposed to go up 50% every twelve weeks? I don't think this is the beginning of the "Big Kahuna" fall (Lord, I hope not; I've got big plans for this autumn, and I'd prefer the market burst into flames around then!), but – as I'm repeating ad nausem – I do think S&P 880 is in the cards.

The EUR/USD is every bit as important as I felt it would be; there's still ample downside from here.

0616-endEUR

I imagine the continued strength of the dollar would break a number of otherwise attractive commodity patterns, but I'm keeping my eye on them just in case.

0616-endDYY

I have some pretty big short positions in gold, but tomorrow is pretty key. If the $HUI broken today's low, that would make it much easier for the tumble to accelerate. Notice – as with the NASDAQ – the $HUI has come full circle to its breakout level.

0616-endHUI

The Morgan Stanley Technology Index looks very vulnerable; I even bought a mid-sized TYP position today, since this is about the most bearish index chart I'm following. Oh, and don't think I'm showing the "tint" in any of my charts as a projection. I usually use it to show areas of weak support. I, errr, overdid it on the chart below.

0616-endMSH

As I mentioned, the NASDAQ has come full circle. It's very close to closing that gap; if it sinks even further, more meaningful weakness (e.g. S&P=880) would quickly follow.

0616-endNASD

I've also noted with interest that the $TRAN keeps getting repelled. Three times, it has been kicked away (see arrows). The present weakness across the board in equities tells me that the bear market rally has really run out of steam; further attempts at new highs will be difficult and may perhaps not even materialize.

0616-endTRAN

One last thought – – I've been saying since Obama won in November that his Messiah-like popularity is heading for trouble. He's still seen as the savior of the world (or at least the United States), but some of his supporters are starting to have bits of doubt here and there. I noticed on Reddit – which tends to attractive a pretty consistent wildly-pro-Obama crowd, is starting to have posts now and then which question just how perfect Obama might be. I think, ultimately, as we zoom toward 5,000 and below on the Dow, you'll see this kind of doubt explode into full-blown disillusionment.

0616-endReddit

Microshort

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I used to think of MSFT as so boring that I didn't even have it on a watch list (and it has to be a really boring not to make my cut of the 1,000 stocks I follow). But someone mentioned it earlier today, and yeah, it looks good. I'm shorting it.

Oh, and I'm sorry to say so, but my Necklines post was right on the money 🙂 The push up to the neckline didn't last for the whole day (or even close), but the price prognostication was preternaturally prescient.

0616-msft

Necklines

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I stated in the last post that, "My gut-feel is that we'll recover some of the lost ground tomorrow and then resume the drop on Wednesday".

Judging from pre-market action, that seems to be the case. In both the EUR/USD and the /ES, we seem to be pushing our way back toward necklines.

0616-es

0616-eur

The completion of these retracements might make for some good new opportunities for shorting certain ETFs, such as those in the energy sector.

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