Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Cover Your Ears So You Can Hear What I’m Saying

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It always puts my panties in a bunch when I read a financial prognosticator state that there are two possibilities: (a) the market will go up; or (b) the market will go down. Unfortunately, this is one of those times I am going to be the one guilty of panties-bunching.

I usually fire up the /ES, but let's have a change of pace tonight and bring up the /NQ instead. First, let's take this interpretation:

0624-ndxup

So you probably get the general idea – – the yellow tinted area shows an area of consolidation which, when completed, simply allowed the market to launch to a higher level. Pushing past last Friday's highs would give strong indications that this was in store for us.

You can subject the same graph to a very different interpretation, however, as shown here:

0624-ndxdown

In this instance, we very plainly broke the trendline with Monday's tumble, and the high from earlier this month was the high for the countertrend rally.

I truly don't know which one of these it is. My re-entering the world of "lottery longs" in my 401-K account shows that I am willing to put some money on the notion of higher prices, yet my other accounts are 100% unadulterated bear.

I'm in meetings the rest of the day and will be flying back to my briefly-interrupted vacation late tonight, so I won't see you until the morning. Good night!

How About That!

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There was a surprisingly loud chorus on Slope calling for today to be up big-time (I won't name names, but you know who you are…..) I, on the other hand, made a ridiculous statement:

0625-dow

How did I know? I didn't. Just call it a feeling.

What's amusing to me is the Fed is saying neither inflation nor deflation is a threat. That's right, folks – – – after the largest credit bubble in history, the Fed was able to handle things so perfectly that they have achieved 100% perfect results. How about that!

0625-fed

I'll try to make some time for market commentary later. Here's to hanging tough for the day! We got the FOMC behind us.

USO Still a Good Short

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I am waiting at the Reno International Airport for the first time in my life. I think all the tackiest billboards on the planet come here to die. If you ever need to know the "gentlemen's" clubs in town, this is the place to find out. Sheesh.

Anyway, I had time for a quick post before I hop on my flight. USO has been pretty much all day, in spite of the market's overall strength, which only amplifies my faith in it as a short position. I think there's plenty of downside yet to go.

0625-uso

Good luck with the FOMC. I'll only find out what's happening once I land.

Super Lotto

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Having gone through several hundred "wrecks" last night, I've smoked out 21 specific lottery plays. Here they are, along with their stops (for newer readers, these are high-risk, cheap, long positions).

ABR 1.58
AGM 4.34
BC 3.35
CPE 1.64
CVGI .93
FMCN 6.17
FMD 1.61
FRG 3.09
GAP 3.79
GRB 1.78
LEA .74
LEE .49
TOMO 2.34
WNR 6.46
XIDE 2.84
ZQK 1.66
ARAY 6.58
CMZ 1.07
GLG 3.78
SYMX .97
XRM .93

Please note
I am going to be on an airplane this morning and busy with meetings this afternoon, so posts will be few and far between. Thanks.

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