It always puts my panties in a bunch when I read a financial prognosticator state that there are two possibilities: (a) the market will go up; or (b) the market will go down. Unfortunately, this is one of those times I am going to be the one guilty of panties-bunching.
I usually fire up the /ES, but let's have a change of pace tonight and bring up the /NQ instead. First, let's take this interpretation:
So you probably get the general idea – – the yellow tinted area shows an area of consolidation which, when completed, simply allowed the market to launch to a higher level. Pushing past last Friday's highs would give strong indications that this was in store for us.
You can subject the same graph to a very different interpretation, however, as shown here:
In this instance, we very plainly broke the trendline with Monday's tumble, and the high from earlier this month was the high for the countertrend rally.
I truly don't know which one of these it is. My re-entering the world of "lottery longs" in my 401-K account shows that I am willing to put some money on the notion of higher prices, yet my other accounts are 100% unadulterated bear.
I'm in meetings the rest of the day and will be flying back to my briefly-interrupted vacation late tonight, so I won't see you until the morning. Good night!
