Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
I am doing this post on my Macintosh, so the charts aren't going to have giant symbols slapped on them like they normally do. Also, this is the kind of post I'd usually do in a video, but I'm just doing it with text and still images, so I can already tell it's going to be Big Enough To Be Seen From Space ™.
Although eleven charts follow, the general theme is the same: that is, a prospectively terrific shorting opportunity with the caveat that a surprise announcement from Big Nose, Blubber Butt, or Uncle Ben could shatter the Spring 2008/Autumn 2011 analog into a million pieces.
We start with the ES, which escaped the confines of its eleven-week-long trading range just yesterday. We are rushing headlong into the underbelly of that trendline, which would put us at about 1265 to 1270. If that line is broken as definitely as the recent trading range, well, God help us – – we could be on our way to 1300 or even 1330 in the coming weeks.
The NASDAQ Composite not only have shoved its price deep into the overhead supply from earlier this year, it has even penetrated above its former resistance level, shown in red. The small caps have been emphatically stronger lately. Today, for instance, the Russell was up about three times as much as the S&P 500.
This isn't my "real" post, by the way. I just wanted to toss off a comment-cleaner and dispense with something that's on my mind.
Iggy dispatched a troll last night who hopped on to the comment section to bellyache that he had lost money by following this blog. Errr, first off, no one should base their trades on anything but their own decisions. One can garner ideas from anywhere – – blogs like this, CNBC, the newspaper, friends, alien space messages – – but the analysis and execution is your own. If you make money, terrific; I get no credit. If you lose money, that's too bad; I get no blame.
I know that saying anything bearish is likely to get me booed off stage, but I'd like to offer the following: below are the 50, 100, and 200-day simple moving averages for the NASDAQ Composite index. I've put an arrow at the points in 2008 and today where I think things line up pretty nicely from an analog perspective.
For what it's worth (which may be $0.00 in this market), I've circled the approximate place where prices were in 2008 corresponding to the above arrow. What it suggests is, yes, some more upside, but a market that is broken enough to fall heartily later.
Of course, as long as we continue to be held hostage by the-announcement-that-never-comes, it hardly matters.