Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
If you were unable to get in on the market's move either in the premarket or right at the open (which seemed at that time a fairly risky maneuver to me), then you've probably been on the sidelines, waiting for the market to make a move.
It also goes without saying, that we are stairing at one overbought market as it has managed in about 3.5 days to rally over 100 points. The upside looks limited at this point without a descent pullback, and I, for one, am not going to start buying this market at these levels.
Something occurred to me about a week ago which helps explain how I perceive the world:
(a) the vast majority of people in the world aren't terribly bright - – in some cases, breathtakingly dumb. There's a reason why the most popular movies are what they are; there's a reason watching television is a national pasttime; there's a reason McDonald's is an unstoppable force on this planet. Most of the knives in the utensil drawer of humanity aren't very sharp.
(b) the rest of them – I see them as the people smarter than me – are intimidatingly smart. They speak multiple languages; they have a facile grasp of mathematical concepts that elude me; they can play the piano brilliantly. I think of myself as a wooden-headed clod when I consider these individuals. My knack for self-loathing kicks into 5th gear when I consider these folks.
Things are going to be very slow (e.g. hardly any posts) today for a few reasons:
+ I'm rather under the weather;
+ I'm going to be traveling in a car a big chunk of the day;
+ Let's face it, surging equity markets make me last chatty!
My bond short idea from early last week continues to do well. Bond bears are finally getting some relief!
I got stopped out of a bunch of equity shorts this morning (which is not surprising, considering the Euro explosion higher), so I'm going to take it easy on the trading side today. I've got a pretty nice "essay-style" post in the hopper I'll put up before I begin my car trip. See ya later, and I promise to make it up to you with content tomorrow.
There's been quite a bit of talk on the blogs about the possibility that this bear market might be finished now. Hard to say for sure but personally I think that's unlikely. Why is that? Well the analogs being touted around are mainly from the last secular bull market 1982-2000, which was the largest secular bull run in history and so isn't an ideal guide. Times have changed now. Corporate profits have been strong for sure, but the economy itself is weak. To illustrate just how bad things are I'd like to show a chart from Money Game's Chart of the Day, which shows the percentage job losses after recessions since WW2. It makes sobering viewing. Click on the chart for see the full write-up: