First: Hope everyone had a happy Father’s Day!
For the full post, please go to http://protectedreturns.blogspot.com/. I am also running a huge promotion there for my premium site (only $5/month for 2 months!).
As I have mentioned a few times before, the nature of the market seems to have changed from bouncing off of the 50-dma on the daily chart to whip-sawing back and forth with no sustained breakout from the bounce. I have illustrated this in the chart below and discuss its implications following the chart.
As you can see, over the past six months, the bounces off of the 50-dma were strong, accompanied by decent volume poles, and continued higher. Only once, before the third bounce, was there a near-test of the 50-dma that launched higher, was reversed and then rocket-launched from that (third) 50-dma touch. Compare that to the 50-dma touch in June: it launched higher initially, was entirely reversed, launched higher again and turned back around. A distinctly different character to the market compared to the previous 50-dma touch launches. Also notice that the initial June 50-dma touch occurred in a volume hole; another distinct difference from previous touch occurrences.
Let me add some further color to these bounces: bounce 1 lasted 8.5 weeks (end of December 2012 to ~ end of February 2013); bounce 2 lasted 9 weeks (end of February to 3rd week of April); bounce 3 lasted 6.5 weeks (3rd week of April to early June); bounce 4 lasted 1 week ( June 5th to ~ June 12th). If the market behavior remained consistent to previous bounces, we should have had at least a 6 week rally in the S&P. What does this mean? The next chart at http://protectedreturns.blogspot.com/ will illustrate the market that awaits us.
Happy Monday and Happy Trading!