Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Brave New World Series: 2 – Fleas and Fibonaccis

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I started writing a post talking about the 2011-13 rising wedge target and after a lot of work I have divided that into two posts that I will post on today and tomorrow.

This first post will lay out the theoretical basis for my analysis and is going to be a little dense. If you don’t much care for math and TA theory you can skip onto the next in the series which I will be posting tomorrow and see the short version with an explanation of the current setup and the two previous examples on SPX that I am treating as comparable. (more…)

Uranus is Bleeding

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I would love to be able to say to you that God came to me in a dream last night and provided me clairvoyance as to the future of the equities market. Sadly, I did have dreams all last night, but they were – and I am not making this up – about urea. I learned recently that there is a futures market in the stuff, and I guess my subconscious found this deeply troubling, so I spent an entire night dreaming about talking with loved ones about urea. . (more…)

A Soft Yen For Copper

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In my last post, I saw possible chart-based turning points for the dollar and its component currencies, but bemoaned the lack of commercial positions data (except for the Yen) to support such an event. And as usual, the data overruled the charts and the dollar continued to work its way up and take the Euro, Pound and Yen down with it.

Ironically, where the commercial positions data did show a large long Yen position, the Yen did not go down to the extremes of the Euro and Pound. The lesson learned is the supporting data can turn a pure guess at a chart formation into a high probability trade or the heeding the lack of supporting data can avoid a costly mistake of taking a low probability trade. Now the question is where do the high probability trade opportunities exist this week due to significant commercial positions and supporting charts? (more…)