Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Guess the Longs!

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Glancing at the list on the right you’ll notice a red dividing line. One portion of this list is the 0701-positionsprofit/loss of my long positions. The other portion is my short positions. Take a wild guess which is which?

Umm, yeah, you were right. That long string of uninterrupted green numbers are the longs (this is not my “main” account, but my smaller account where I get more experimental). The long string of red numbers, with one exception, are the shorts. It’s a chilling sight (I would note the one profitable short position is one I suggested to my Slope+ readers last week).

The other aspect of this is that the longs are very “young”, only in place about a week, while the shorts have been in place for about a month. The obvious conclusion – duh – is that it’s much easier to make money on the long side these days. I don’t think anyone has been as disturbed as I am right now looking at these green values.

I noticed more than a few remarks, prompted by my willingness to buy, that “this must be the top” or “time to short everything now.” Well, har-de-freakin’-har. I suppose the implication is that I’m an uber-contrarian indicator, so if I’m buying, time to short. Well, not necessarily. It seems that my little experiment on the long side is working on pretty well so far. Time for a severe identity crisis!

Q3 Day 1 – Bullish

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The first trading day of the third quarter is historically bullish. The Stock Trader’s Almanac has this as down as 76.2% bullish on Dow and 81% bullish on SPX. Looking back over the last ten years the points to note are:

– Eight green closes and two red closes
– The two red closes were -3 (2010) and -12 (2004)
– The eight green closes were +3, +3, +4, +5, +8, +10, +16, +19
– The second day of Q3 leans bearish

I’m leaning bullish today and looking for a retest of the 1968 SPX high from last week. If strong primary resistance overhead is respected there is still headroom to run up as high as the SPX daily upper band, currently at 1972. SPX daily chart: (more…)