By Biiwii
IKN has been pointing out the stupidity of some Apple Watch gold consumption hype and most recently, the non-flight to quality amidst Greece blah blah blah… He is at least as sensitive as I am to this stuff. More so, maybe.
While I have personally tried to tone down the criticism of the cartoons in the gold “community”, I find it difficult with one writer in particular leading the naive into the GDX (with its “drop dead gorgeous bull wedge”), into the Indian Wedding and China demand stories and as a topping on the cartoonish cake, the ‘US jobs will drive inflation so make like the smart money and BUY GOLD before the big institutions do!’ garbage.
I get irritated by this stuff. Some people call me sanctimonious (while cherry picking and misinterpreting a chart I put up) and I call myself judgmental, for sure. That is not really a great trait to have, but at least I know who and how I am. Speaking for the defense, this is mostly applied when I think that people are being misled to their potential harm by stuff that they are reading and assuming is authoritative.
News flash: Nobody writing on the internet in general and the financial media in particular, is authoritative. Present company included.
Last year at this time Ukraine, Russia and eventually Ebola were stoking up. NFTRH kept a constant warning in force that the rally in the precious metals complex was happening for the wrong reasons (i.e. trade it, but don’t bite on the b/s). Right out front beating the bull drum were some of these entities about which I am highly critical today. The result for last summer’s unsuspecting true believers? New freaking lows in gold, silver and the miners.
It was interesting because last summer NFTRH experienced a temporary net decline in subscribership. I thought it was just a typical summer drop off, but I also could just feel certain gold aficionados in the base getting fed up with me. You can always sense when gold bugs start dropping off. It tends to happen when I don’t tell them enough of what they want to hear.
This summer (so far, anyway) there has been no drop off and indeed there has been a slight increase in net subscribership. The only way I can explain it is that we have been fully prepared every step of the way for the bearish things happening to gold, silver and the average* miner. That along with the fact that we have been bullishly managing markets that have deserved to be managed, unlike the precious metals to this point.
In other words this summer I am not being punished for being negative because precious metals prices are not running upward, making charlatans with nicer things to say look like gurus. People are valuing what is, as opposed to what they ideally might want to be. Oh and also I think that the last several years have been a process of winnowing the real hard ass gold bugs out of the base and leaving a group of well rounded market participants. I like that.
This is not a ‘trash the precious metals’ post. Changes are coming, but first you need to be intact, have several macro fundmental and technical indicators cross referenced and in line and be prepared to be brave when the sheep (funny how the most dogmatic “community” on earth calls regular people “sheeple”, isn’t it?) are being sheared.
* I am fully aware that there are standout exceptions, which is why I currently hold 3 junior gold stocks (alongside a short against NUGT).
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