Watch the Bonds

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Since worldwide equity markets have long since dispatched the importance of silliness like products, revenues, earnings, and growth – – all in favor of the endless largesse of fiat-printing central banks – – all eyes were on Mario Draghi this morning (which, if you’ve seen the man’s face, is unfortunate for all observers).

To the delight of equity bulls, Draghi is the same amoral, spineless bureaucratic creep that Jerome Powell is, so he has once again grabbed his ankles and went Full Dove. ES and NQ markets vaulted green, with the NQ in particular soaring a full 50 points above its overnight low. As of this immediate moment, ES and NQ have returned to red. I find this fascinating, similar to the way in which Trump’s declaration last night that (groan) Trade Talks Are Going Well was meant with a worldwide eye-roll.

I would suggest turning at least a little of your attention to the bond market instead, which the past few days has looked like this:


Quite a bit of strength, eh? Well, it’s all about context. It’s got a long road ahead. Still, at least it aborted that breakdown beneath the horizontal.


If you go back to the really big picture, the notion of another bond market rally doesn’t seem far-fetched. In fact, it seems to be revving up to fly higher, if it can power its way past those horizontals.


For myself, the biggest concentration of shorts is in the financials, so a soaring bond market, leading to plunging interest rates, and thus diminished bank earnings, would all line up nicely.