Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Warning Signs from AAII Sentiment

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From Hedge Fund Tips: AAII Sentiment Survey results are out this morning. Bullishness is now up OVER the 40 level – which usually marks market reversals. Bearishness has collapsed. In the S&P500 chart below I have noted those dates in the recent past where Sentiment was at similar levels (Bullishness ~40, Bearishness <30). You can follow along with the red circles on the sentiment results above.

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Topping Out …… Probably

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SPX and NDX reached the resistance areas that I was looking at and may be topping out there, the rising wedge support trendlines on SPX, NDX and RUT have all now broken down. So what now?

Well on SPX I have been watching three levels which are all currently in the same area. These are the SPX weekly pivot at 2784, the 50 hour MA now at 2787 and the 5dma now at 2790. What I was looking for this morning was a break down through these, which we saw, then a backtest into those as resistance which failed in that range. That we did not see, and I’m wondering whether we are going to see a high retest next to set up the second high of a small double top. SPX is still on a 60min RSI 14 sell signal with a possible daily RSI 5 sell signal brewing.

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