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There are few things more boring and pointless than hearing someone tell you about “the one that got away.” By its very nature, trading generates countless missed opportunities, and anyone who has done this for a while has approximately zero interest in hearing about the big fish that got away. It’s got to be as boring as listening to someone tell you about a dream they had last night.
I’m not here to write a post about the countless profits I let slip away last quarter, but I would like to share a tale of “blowing it” that I think informs my decisions in the immediate future.
Back in mid-February, I did something which I had not done in years, which was buy puts on individual stock. I had reason to believe that Nike (NKE) was going to weaken, so I bought some puts. When I buy options, they tend to be quite conservative. Specifically, I bought some puts that were in the money and didn’t expire for months.
There’s just no two ways about it. Absolutely extraordinary.
In my epiphanic post from March 21st, I stated, in part, “Should we rally to 270.14, either now, or many weeks from now, that’s going to be a lead wall. It also, I believe, will mark the start of an even larger selloff.“
Well, we did indeed rally, thanks to the impotent and treasonous Jerome Powell and even more evil Steve Mnuchin throwing trillions of dollars at our dying nation, but we didn’t even reach my target. Instead, it nailed – – and I mean NAILED – – the Fibonacci level. Just jaw-dropping. I’ve marked with an arrow my “epiphanic” target.
Happy April Fool’s Day, and welcome to a new quarter of trading. This will be a quick comment cleaner, as I’m already loaded with 50 short positions.
The double top on the ES I pointed out yesterday worked like a charm. I had been targeting, as you know, 2700 for the bounce, but maybe 2635 will be enough after all. The horizontal where we are banging around now represents some measure of support, so I’m definitely not entering any new shorts here. Not until the smoke clears some more. Indeed, I covered my one big position, HYG, for a nice profit, and I’m slowly plodding through all my positions to tighten up the stops.