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I have been banging the table for weeks to watch for the fabled death cross. While it is not a guaranteed lotto ticket, as a speculator I am simply looking for clues. Big clues as I place larger bets.
There are a few instances where the drawdown is nil. But note, there are none that show 5%+ gains. So the success rate from the death cross to the 50 day crossing up over the 200, is fairly accurate. Do not mind charlatans that also say, ‘In x months after the death cross, we actually saw gains in these years.” It is the same as “if you sell now you will miss the best rally” or “over a long time horizon the markets always are up.“
Last year, I frequently mentioned Twilio (TWLO) as an appealing short sale based on its extraordinarily high valuation and its right triangle topping pattern. That played out beautifully for many months, and now it has done an eye-poppingly good job at sealing up its gap. I’d say we can close this a winner!
I will say that I’m holding a number of stocks in my bearish portfolio (is there any other kind? which resemble TWLO but are, I believe, a long way off from finishing their own journeys!
Let us recount the preposterous journey of AMC Cinema in a single graphic. This was, of course, the darling of the /wallstreetbets lunatics. They seriously thought it was going to $5,000 per share because they were going to defeat the big, bad hedge funds. Suffice it to say that they have failed, and that a person who acquired AMC at its public offering nine full years ago would be sitting on a 0% gain now.
As you know, the Chinese stock market (and property market, for that matter) has been a complete fiasco. To give you a taste of what’s been going on, I present to you a quantity of stocks (ironically, eight of them, which I deliberately chose since it’s a lucky number in Asian culture).