Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Preface to all four parts: I am locked and loaded for CPI week. I have 43 equities in my Bear Pen, 23 of which I am long puts (expiring anywhere from June 2023 through January 2025). In parts 1 and 2 I will share my “live” positions, and in parts 3 and 4 will be the other charts in which I have no position, either because they aren’t quite as compelling or because I simply have no buying power left! I have used the watermark for the charts so it’s very plain to see what you’re looking at.(more…)
The public seems to think that the only thing that’s need to cure all our economic woes is for inflation to go away. “Disinflation” is the Fed’s favorite propaganda word these days, and “the pivot” is what all the bulls salivate about. But look at the chart below. It shows the consumer price index. Looks great, doesn’t it? Not just dis-inflation, or no-flation, but steadily dropping prices. Oh, and if you’ll note in the timeline, this is the Great Depression. So, yeah, I think a pivot will come, and I think deflation will take hold. But I also think people will eventually realize they’ve been duped.
Looking back toward the beginning of this month, it’s now clear that the pop on February 2nd was an important peak. Since then, we’ve had some important failed bullish breakouts.(more…)