Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
If I may indulge in a bit of escapist fantasy (and I’ve probably made it quite clear this so-called market is something I’d quite like to escape, or at least exchange for a real one). Here’s my dream scenario:
This ridiculous political theatre leads to some kind of bargain;
The market, trained like a mass of imbeciles to rally on what is touted as good news, does so;
The /RTY pushes its way back up to 1827 or thereabouts, which is a major point of resistance;
I get the opportunity to load up on puts again at good prices;
The market realizes it’s been had (again) and starts selling off for weeks
As Nvidia approaches $800 billion in “value” and a P/E of 200, I wanted to share with you a simple fact of classic pattern analysis: the target price for this extraordinarily well-formed inverted H&S pattern was $300. We have met (and exceeded) this level, which I’ve tinted in green, and we’re now just a few percentage points below the lifetime high achieved in November 2021 during the peak of post-Covid mania.
Uncertainty is a fact of life, and with the #1 story these days being the Debt Ceiling, it seems things are more uncertain than ever. Nonsense! Here are a few truths you can put in The Bible:
The U.S. isn’t going to default;
Instead, the warring political parties will get as much press as they can, and pander as much as they are able to their constituents, right up to the brink;
There will be some kind of meaningless concessions on which they all finally agree, and the entire issue will vanish instantly, even if they miss the so-called X-Date by a few days;
Thus, our nation will gleefully march its way to its next debt level of $40 trillion, which matters as much as if it were $500 trillion, since none of it is ever going to be paid back in any genuine way regardless of how gargantuan it becomes.
The end result is that the federal government is simply going to grow larger and larger until it eventually either collapses into utter chaos or winds up making 90% of the population wards of the state by way of Universal Basic Income.
The decrepit Janet Yellen is playing her role in this performance beautifully, using scare tactics to try to cow the other side into compliance. This is all political theatre, and it’s an embarrassing farce that this once-great nation has now been reduced to a grotesque and degenerate debt addict that can only beg and plead for more trillions, since it is is incapable of making any difficult yet sensible fiscal decisions.
