Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Binary Decision Point

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I was looking earlier this week on the very high quality falling wedge that had formed on SPX from the last high and considering the odds that it was a bull flag setting up a retest of the high.

Since then the wedge has broken up, retraced about 50% of the decline, and an IHS has formed with a target back at a retest of the last high.

At this stage there are only two main options. Firstly that the IHS breaks up, converts the neckline to support, and goes on to retest the last high, and secondly that SPX drops back through 4360, and likely then retests the last low at 4328.09, and then very possibly down further. It is very likely that we will see one of those two options happen next.

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PREMIUM: The A-Ha of Advances

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Note: This post is special enough to be labeled a premium post, which means that it is (with the exception of the paragraph you are reading now) visible only to Gold and Platinum subscribers. If you would like to try a risk-free subscription to get immediate access to all premium content, as well as the dozens of other features exclusive for paid accounts, click here to explore the choices. Everyone is welcome to continue chatting in comments below (or, for a more free-flowing experience, please use SlopeTalk).

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Tesla Fibs

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No, this isn’t going to be some diatribe about Tesla not launching products on time or any other canards. It’s about the stock Tesla (TSLA) and its Fibonacci retracement levels. They seem to have a very intimate relationship.

Here we see the stock over the past few years. There are two Fibonacci retracement pairs on here. Both are anchored to Tesla’s lifetime high, and the lows are anchored, respectively, to the low of June 3, 2019 and the lifetime low near its IPO. As you can see, the prices have an extraordinary respect for the Fibs, alternately acting as support or resistance.

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No More Pushing

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Silk purse. Sow’s ear. You know the drill. Here we meet again.

Among the major markets, as I’ve mentioned previously, the only chart which I sort of like is the small cap futures. In recent days, I’ve found myself having to nudge the horizontal a little bit higher, and a little bit higher, and then a little bit more. But enough is enough. I consider myself an honest chartist, and there’s only so long one can play that little game. I’ve thus shoved the line back to a sensible place and accepted the fact that prices have, sadly, pushed above it. Maybe the pattern is kaput, or maybe it’s a temporary overshoot. We shall see. But I’m not doing to warp and distort the chart just to reach some desired conclusion.

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