Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Weekly Charts – Seasonality

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A few years ago I attended a seminar where Jake Bernstein spoke about seasonality. This really appealed to me because of the statistical-based nature of seasonality.  You had your odds and could bet accordingly. From there I bought a few of Jake’s books and did a little more reading on the subject.  I subscribed to his newsletter for a while and probed the internet for more information.  I found that there are a lot of websites that provide great information on seasonality.  What I discovered is that seasonality works! Except when it doesn’t. (more…)

Weekly Charts – Conspiracy and N+1

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N+1 is a mathematical construct that means there is always one more.  If you have 5 then you can get 6, if you have 11 then you can get 12 and so on.  Theories are the same way.  For every plausible (or implausible) theory, there will likely be another.  If there are 5 competing theories, there will likely emerge a 6th.  To vary this slightly, if you can construct one explanation for something and either you or someone else can construct yet another explanation, then yet still another explanation is possible – N+1. In time, the correct theory is usually revealed through observation, investigation or entropy. (more…)