Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Brutal Honesty

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I'm not going to open up the bar today. Sorry, Bo. This just isn't a day to celebrate.

It is, however, a day for some stark honesty……….the deep dark truthful mirror. Because, as traders, we need to be honest with ourselves on a daily basis. The truth hurts sometimes, but pain is good in the long run. Life means suffering, as the Buddha said.

I will start by presenting this paragraph from a post I did this March; I have emphasized a few portions of it.

To my way of thinking, if the market moves to around 770, stabilizes, moves higher, and then pushes past 830.50, that's a very good sign for the bulls. It basically indicates whatever extra "air" had lifted the market quickly from 666 to 830 has been released, and the strength continues. The overhead supply from 800 to 870 is going to take a lot of work to push through, but if and when that work is done, there's going to be a lot of power behind the bulls. A 2009 high of ~1050 is, I think, still in the cards. I sure hope so. It's going to be a total bear-fest if we can get that high.

Now, just in case you think this bullish conviction was just a once-in-a-blue-moon thing, it's not. I have mentioned 1050 over and over and over again, as this Google search illustrates.

So here's the brutal truth for me: my inability to embrace and act on my own excellent analysis was probably the biggest failure for me as a trader thus far in my life. It makes me disappointed in myself, and it diminishes my reputation. But I still am here, day after day, head held high, in spite of my abject failure to execute properly. Outstanding analysis and failure to execute combine to yield nothing.

I'm going to try to be a little more discrete about my account size, but let's just say this – – I hit my peak back in March at a figure we can call 100%, and I've spent the past five months grinding between 100% and 85% ever since (some detractors probably figure I've lost 95% of my account, so I'm sorry to disappoint you goons). I've been creeping toward 85% more and more, and I'm there right now. In other words, I'm at the low end of my range, and that stinks, considering how accurately I "called" what was ahead back in March.

Bottom line: be honest with yourself, day to day, hour to hour, minute to minute. Anything else is a fantasy.

So I'm ending the week on a low note. I'm near the bottom of my equity curve over the past five months, and I stare in the face of a prediction that would have been profoundly beneficial to me. The only silver lining to this very big cloud is that 1050 is tantalizingly close.

I only wish that I had in my pockets the profits I would have amassed if I had followed the pathway that I laid out myself.

Retracement Levels

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I have refrained from showing any retracement levels stuff for many, many months (at the behest of 2sweeties, because his subscribers kept getting ticked off), but I'm going to break radio silence on this item………..

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I have dedicated myself to learning RetracementLevels.com more deeply (2sweeties and I are doing some one on one coaching next week). For now, I have entered my /ES short at 1025, based on the RL data.

And if you don't buy into this stuff, you could always use psychic powers.

Troll Bridge

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Well, in the five years I've been doing this blog, I've at least picked up one psychological advantage that took a long time to achieve……….not letting trolls and hate mail get to me.

There's one particular psychopath who has been harassing me via email – – I see you, proptrader! – – who wrote me this morning under a new email address (since I blocked the old one). It was basically a bunch of nasty pictures and laughing, such as….

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I really don't know what motivates such people. I assume he's some messed-up kid in his 20s – – very angry, no close friends, no woman in his life – – who just has to kick people when they're down.

Oh, proptrader, what a naughty caprice! Don't you worry your sweet head about me. I'll always be fine.

Morning Post

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I don't think a single week has gone by in the past five months that I haven't received a compelling graph – – usually many of them – – from readers showing me in compelling and convincing terms why This Was The Top. And you know what? Every one of them has turned out to be false.

I've received clever animations of balls tumbling off a charted precipice, and all kinds of Elliott Wave counts – – – and of course newsletters which make squishy dual predictions ("…the market will be up because of such and so or the market will be down because of such and so") and, the next day, declare victory ("...as we wrote yesterday………….the market will be up..…….."). It's tiresome, to put it kindly.

Stocks are moving up, and relentlessly so. It started March 6, and it hasn't really paused since. My prediction of 1050 (which I did a yeoman's job ignoring) is within spitting distance, and my uppermost projection for the S&P of 1200 seems completely plausible now.

So I'm feeling really worn out. And I think I'm going to stick to long suggestions since that seems to be the only direction stocks are going.

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