Deceleration

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Compared to Friday's half-session, today was pretty much a snoozer, except for the oh-so-irritating run-up during the last hour of the day (naturally).

I remain fully short, and I bumped up my positions in several dozen cases. I intend to get a lot more aggressive once we see some fracturing start to really take place. For now, I am content to simply be "in position", measuring 5 on a scale of 1 to 10. One important index that I'm watching, which I've mentioned many times before, is the semiconductor index. This thing has "top" written all over it.

1130-sox
 

Far broader, and more important, however, is the S&P 500. I've done an illustration like this before, but I'm struck by the sheer loss of momentum. To illustrate this, I've drawn an arrow from the base of each prior rounded top thrusting up to the first higher high. You can see how the thrusts are getting weaker and weaker, and how this more recent topping pattern is deep inside the range of the prior one (which wasn't the case for its predecessors).

1130-slowing
 

Tomorrow morning, the manufacturing index comes out half hour after the opening bell. That will probably give the market a bit of direction, especially without any end-of-month weirdness.

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