Step back and look at the market action since mid February people …. my believe is that we are still in the process of making an important long-term top. These types of turning points take time with plenty of back and forth.
Here are a few charts to look at …
SPY Retracement Chart:
The SPY has pulled back to that all-important 50% retracement level that typically marks the turning point for pullback/retracements in a health trend. Also note that the lower Bollinger Band is situated just underneath this area as well ($129.38).
The Stochastic indicator is approaching an oversold level … people familiar with this indicator know that it is only good for use during Range trading and not in Trend trading. Therefore, as long as we are not about to take off in a trend move lower, it is flashing a buying area nearby.
The market internals chart above shows that while the volume of selling here today is larger than any seen last week, it is not at levels seen during the down draft in March.
The amount of declining-advancing issues is however at levels seen at the beginning of the March sell-off. My reading of this chart tells me to expect a bounce tomorrow or at the latest on Wednesday. My plan is to not guess when it will occur but to be ready when the market tells me it wants to bounce higher.
NYSE Up – Down Volume:
This last chart looks closely at the up/down volume … again after the 12:30pm 60-min candle was put in, it showed that today's level of volume for down stocks was not at extreme levels.
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