Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Breaking Down (by Springheel Jack)

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I've been warning all week that the nice bullish setup into the 1240 SPX area might fail as the main trend is still down, and it looks as though it has broken down with conviction overnight. The technical position might be recovered with a very fast and strong recovery this morning, but failing that the advantage is back with the bears. NQ cracked first yesterday and broke rising wedge support:

TF held the support zone yesterday but fell through it overnight. After a bounce at rising support which confirmed the trendline and has given us a second rising wedge on an equity index, the wedge then broke downwards. I'm wondering about a retest of broken supporting the 700 area in the morning session:

ES broke up yesterday morning but the breakout failed and fell back. 1180 support held during the day but was then lost in the overnight session. Rising support is in the 1156 area and a bounce there would deliver a third rising wedge. We might well see a bounce there, possibly to retest broken support in the 1180 area:

Bonds gave an early warning of trouble yesterday, with TLT having risen strongly for both of the last two days. TLT is within striking distance of new highs, which I'm expecting soon:

I was speculating yesterday morning that the break up from the EURUSD triangle might be a false break up before a real break down towards support in the 1.385 area. I'm still wondering about that today and if we are starting another move down on equities then I think that is more than likely:

The advantage is firmly with the bears today but we might yet see a strong bounce to test broken support in the 1178-80 area before dripping much further. The Gap Guy says that the odds for a gap fill today are good and while I think that's unlikely, we might well see a strong attempt to fill the gap. Kudos to Pug for calling the likely high in the 1200 area all week and he is targeting a retest of 1101 on his primary count.

618 Days Plus Timing (By eMiniSchool.com)

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8.17DOW7

8.17DOW8

From the March 09' low we are now 618 days into the future and 618 is a key number (.618% or 1.618%). Breaking it down further on the weekly chart we have 127 bars up from the same low and 127 is also a very important number 1.270%.

On the weekly there has been 888 days from the low. So if you take 888 and divide it by 127 you will get 6.99. Take that and square root it a few times and you will get to what? 127 and 127 is how many bars we have had up on the weekly so there is a cluster there on the 127 ratio.

If you break down to the daily chart we have had 618 bars up on 894 days. Also on the daily chart the TR or the Time Retrace is .01274. Notice how on the daily we get a time retrace of .01274 which is very close to the weekly chart numbers of 1.270. Also on the daily we have 7.8517 Ppb (points per bar). Take 7.8517 and divide by 618 and you get .0127 again!

All of these numbers came where? On the move down to symmetry support and we noted the levels ahead of time and none of the markets have closed below the support numbers. In fact, we had a 800 point bounce from the support levels.

We are not saying that the low holds 100% because who really knows for sure but there is a calculation here that we went over so you can do with it what you want. Going back on every major turning point there has been both time and price relevance.

Some people believe and some do not and we are not here to try to convince anyone of anything but we hope you can find some value along the way and apply it to your trading.

Happy Trading,

www.eMiniSchool.com

http://wwweminischool.wordpress.com/

PS. We do have short term resistance from the last high on the 60 minute chart in both time and price as well but it is only 40% so it is not that great but it could get us back down to the 11,000. 

POTW: Just a Few Simple Words

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The Peeve Of The Week (POTW) is an occasional feature on Slope which allows me to (a) gripe about something which bugs me, whether justified or not (b) put up a post when there's nothing in particular I want to say about the market. In spite of its moniker, the POTW may or may not shown up weekly. In any event, here's a new entry:

I recognize English isn't the easiest of languages. Because of its heritage, English has many quirks and ungainly rules, and I'm sure I make plenty of grammatical mistakes in the course of my life.

However, if English is your first language (and, if so, it's almost certainly your only language), it shouldn't be that hard to know how to spell some commonly-used words. In addition, it shouldn't be that hard to understand that some words have homonyms, and knowing the spelling and definition of these will prove to others you are an educated, capable member of our society.

Let's look at a few common problem areas:

+ their/there/they're – their is a possessive pronoun ("The paper I am holding provides their positive STD results.") There is most commonly related to placement ("I put my used tissues right over there.") they're is a contraction for "they are" ("They're morons, because they don't visit Slope on a daily basis).

+ it's/its – I'm really not sure how often I have to repeat this to make it known, but the first word is a contraction ("It's a shame Tim has to keep reminding some people of what they should have learned in the third grade.") while the second is a possessive pronoun ("That house is in such sorry shape that its shingles are blowing off in the breeze.")

+ loose/lose – Gosh, these aren't even homonyms, yet people get them confused. "Loose" is a condition of non-tightness (AJC leaps to mind). "Lose" is the opposite of "win". Think Charlie Sheen.

There are many others, but this is a good start. Watch yourself in the comments section; you don't want people to pile on you for stumbling over any of these fundamentals.

Im-awsome