Slope of Hope Blog Posts
This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.
Happy Canada Day to Canadian friends and Happy Independence Day to American friends!
The Macro chart that caught my attention this week was on Bonds and is shown below. It’s pretty self explanatory. We have a good 7 year channel in place with many tests to the upper and lower trend lines. The break outside the channel is a warning flag that something is changing. Price will likely fall back into the channel but breaks outside of well established channels require consideration. (more…)
I’ve posted the chart for the rising wedge that broke up on SPX this year a few times with the comment that the upside target was 1965, but haven’t added much to that because I was planning to look at this pattern target in detail in this dedicated post. (more…)
Have you noticed that the extremely well respected bond fund managers Jeffery Gundlach & Bill Gross have been out in force all over the financial media in a concerted effort to assure us that the sharp spike in bond yields is nothing to get too concerned about? Anytime big league fund mangers are overtly delivering sure-fire batting instructions and pitching perfectly timed advice on the markets, my antennas go up as I become suspicious of a dastardly curve ball heading directly for the plate. Why now and why such persistent prognostic public pronouncements over the stadium’s loud speakers? (more…)
In a recent post (“The Night Is Dark And Full Of Terrors“) we looked at how a couple of hedges could have saved ABX longs from bigger losses last week. BlackBerry (BBRY), which tanked nearly 28% Friday after a revenue miss, offers another example. One difference here is that BlackBerry investors could have gotten paid to hedge a few months ago. I bet many wish they had. (more…)
I started writing a post talking about the 2011-13 rising wedge target and after a lot of work I have divided that into two posts that I will post on today and tomorrow.
This first post will lay out the theoretical basis for my analysis and is going to be a little dense. If you don’t much care for math and TA theory you can skip onto the next in the series which I will be posting tomorrow and see the short version with an explanation of the current setup and the two previous examples on SPX that I am treating as comparable. (more…)
I would love to be able to say to you that God came to me in a dream last night and provided me clairvoyance as to the future of the equities market. Sadly, I did have dreams all last night, but they were – and I am not making this up – about urea. I learned recently that there is a futures market in the stuff, and I guess my subconscious found this deeply troubling, so I spent an entire night dreaming about talking with loved ones about urea. . (more…)
In my last post, I saw possible chart-based turning points for the dollar and its component currencies, but bemoaned the lack of commercial positions data (except for the Yen) to support such an event. And as usual, the data overruled the charts and the dollar continued to work its way up and take the Euro, Pound and Yen down with it.
Ironically, where the commercial positions data did show a large long Yen position, the Yen did not go down to the extremes of the Euro and Pound. The lesson learned is the supporting data can turn a pure guess at a chart formation into a high probability trade or the heeding the lack of supporting data can avoid a costly mistake of taking a low probability trade. Now the question is where do the high probability trade opportunities exist this week due to significant commercial positions and supporting charts? (more…)
Further to my last Weekly Market Update, this week’s update will look at charts and percentage gained/lost graphs of the four Major Indices for the past week, month, and quarter (my Q1 2013 market wrap-up can be seen here). (more…)