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What did I do over Christmas? I ran the blog. I finished the rewrite of my first screenplay. I hosted the holidays at my house (both Christmas and New Year’s). But, most important of all……I created something completely and totally new.
2017 is likely to be an interesting year, and the tape has already shaken off the December cobwebs and is moving again. On the bigger picture the chart below is how I’m seeing SPX on the monthly chart here, and the key message is that the bull market from the 2009 low here is most likely topping out or has already topped, though that doesn’t mean that SPX will necessarily drop much in 2017. This has been an eight year bull market and if we see the retracement that I’m looking at on the chart below, then we may not see that bear market low until 2020/1. If we see that 50% retracement then that would be a beautiful fibonacci move, and should then set up a very nice long into the next bull market.
Welcome to a new trading year, everyone. It looks like the animal spirits continue to run strong for equities, as just about every asset class is in the green. One zone in particular which is looking like it’s truly breaking out for another leg up is crude oil. Perhaps the big OPEC deal has more legs than people gave it credit for.