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I had an interesting psychological experience I thought I’d share on this cool Thursday evening, as I sit in the night air.
I run a tiny hedge fund which, not surprisingly, focuses on short-selling. In spite of the market running up to lifetime highs this quarter (indeed, just days ago), I had booked a respectable profit, and I was satisfied with my results. And then………..I got scared.
The betting odds about the Democrat Presidential candidate are pretty fascinating. The blowout winner right now is none other than Elizabeth Warren. (One can only wish that put options had been available on Kamala Harris’s popularity). Look at that surge!
The market is absolutely hamstrung until this goddamned China trade thing is behind us. The next couple of weeks are going to be a nauseating buffet of bromides. For the short-term, I’d suggest keeping an eye on the Dow 30, to see if it fails to beat the bar highlighted below:
To my way of thinking, one proxy for the whole China/US trade deal (or no deal) is the agricultural products fund, symbol DBA. It isn’t particularly heavily-traded, and it’s been in a steady grind-down for years.