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After three terrific days of weakness (last Thursday, Friday, and then today, Monday) it can certainly be argued that the bulls are going to mount a counter-offensive. I offer the charts below which speak to this probability.
First is the NYSE Composite, whose low Monday perfectly tagged the supporting trendline. I think this trendline will get broken, perhaps even before the year is out, but a bounce seems logical.
We’re getting the item below for our Christmas meal, as we always do. The vendor put together this 30 second video showing what goes into it; a fun, quick watch! I have stopped weighing myself these days.
No this is not the fifth day of the 12 days of Christmas carol, but the first day of an historically bullish trading opportunity for metalheads’ favorite precious shiny.
Since the introduction of GLD back in 2004, the ETF has seen a 13-4 record of bullish closes in the December to January OpEx period (i.e. First open following the close of trading on the 3rd Friday in December, through the end of trading on the 3rd Friday in January).
Now let’s compare that to the overall record this century for the underlying gold futures contract.
Since 2000 the gold futures continuous contract for the same December to January OpEx period has shown a 16-5 record of bullish closes.
In both cases, that’s a greater than 75% odds of a bullish close.