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I’ve got a couple of charts to show you that are interesting. These are private charts. What I mean by that is that they representing the sum total of paying subscribers (God bless ’em all) here on Slope in two different eras. The first one is the Spring of 2020, during the Covid crash:
Like the larger media this tiny little spec within the media reports the news to you. The 10yr-2yr yield curve has inverted (ref. Yield Curve inversion upcoming). Now, what does it mean?
Well the first thing it usually means is not to panic (especially now that High Yield credit spreads are easing), but do tune out the media hype about it because it is not the inversion that tends to signal an economic bust but instead, the steepening that follows it. Among the important questions are how long will it remain inverted and how deep will the inversion go before the next steepener?
During the preposterous run-up in prices that terminated on March 29th, one of the first sectors I wanted to re-short was semiconductors. I got puts on AMD (July $130) and NVDA (July $300). How pleased I was yesterday morning to see Jim “I’ve out-Gartman’d Gartman” Cramer with this, the first of a number of tweets about him being an eager beaver about AMD.