A year ago, everyone on the planet was a bear, and there was a lot of chest-thumping going on about just how bad things were going to get. There were even widely-broadcast concerns that all the neighborhood banks would shut down, so stocking up on raw cash (or, better yet, dusty bags of old silver coins from decades past) was considered a good idea.
That was, of course, the bottom of the market to date. And I challenge anyone to go to Safeway this afternoon and stock up on groceries with their silver pieces from 1960.
It's been interesting to observe the transmogrification that has taken place since then. Here, in no particular order, seem to be the ways the bears of a year ago have adapted. I'm going to avoid naming names, but those who spent their lives hanging out on the web probably will surmise who's who.
Camp-Switchers – These folks are just as loud and obnoxious on the bull side as they were on the bear side. They seem to have conveniently forgotten how bearish they were a year ago. The level of bullishness on the web is actually kind of shocking; plenty of folks seem to be comfortable that the highs of 2007 will simply be shoved aside. We are living in Beanie's finest hour.
We Knew It All Along – This bunch claims that they called this bull market right from the beginning. A careful study of their writings from that time don't really seem to bear this out, but as with most written works, it's easy enough to cherry-pick some choice phrases to seem prescient (the basic rule in newsletter writing is along these lines: the market is poised for either its final, shocking collapse or an explosive rally like the world has never seen becomes the market is poised for…an explosive rally like the world has never seen"). I think my "long term view" is still holding up well to date, but I make no claims to turning bullish a year ago. I, errr, wish I had.
Disappearing Acts – I'm thinking of one blog in particular, but the trick here is to basically walk away. Pretend it isn't there. Pretend it was never there in the first place. Abandon the site, and plan to return when reality starts to line up with prognostications.
Grudging Recognition of Reality – I consider myself more or less in this camp, which is griping and complaining every step of the way, but is slowly recognizing that an amoral cabal of central bankers wields an ungodly amount of market-distorting power, and regular traders are powerless against them.
Tin Foil Hats – Again, I'm thinking of one blog in particular, but this part of the blogosphere really hasn't changed their tune one bit. They're still railing against The Powers That Be. I actually have a fair amount of respect for this part of the world, since I think ultimately – – maybe eons from now, but ultimately – – they will be proved right.
Double Talkers – Without naming names (but for some strange reason the words "Chariot Crave Fears Mist" spring to mind) there has been some serious, serious backpedaling going on of late. Maybe this is the last bastion of bearishness that is going to fall. And, no, they didn't decide to go bearish just in January. It was months before that. Let's keep it honest, fellas.
And there we have it. In about twenty-four hours, the latest FOMC nonsense will take place, and that could prove to be an inflection point. I'm trying to remain cautious, since I think – – given the stabbings the bears have endured all this time – – that the FOMC's non-news-event tomorrow ("we're keeping everything the same again!") could push the S&P up to 1230 or permit it to slip back down to 1100. The market's reaction to this non-event is always bizarre and perverse. So there ya go.
Anyone I've forgotten?
