Slope of Hope Blog Posts

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Bear in Mind

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Years ago, I would tell people that I was a really good chart analyst, but a lousy trader. And it was true. I had a natural knack for reading charts, but the actual firefight of trading was something that was horribly challenging for me.

After many years of study, reflection, and effort, I'm still a really good analyst, and my trading skills are starting to catch up. If I may say so, I've gone from "great chartist/terrible trader" to "great chartist/good trader." Once I reach "great chart/great trader", I'm going to take over the world.

A reader brought this to mind by sending me a screen shot of a chart I posted around March 20th, speculating on what I saw ahead for the market in the coming months. It is shown below, precisely as I scribbled it out nearly four months ago………


Let's highlight in yellow the chunk of time which has transpired between then and now:


So what I predicted was (a) down a little (b) up a little (c) down a little (d) up a lot (e) the formation of a head and shoulders pattern.

What does the actual chart look like? I've shown it below, drawing in the lines that correspond with my prediction:


In the words of the Sloper who sent this to me, "You nailed it!"

I must say, I was kind of taken aback. Now, just to be clear my ego hasn't run away with me, let me beat myself up some: I called practically every wiggle of the market four months in advance with eerie precision, but I took advantage of maybe 20% of it. All in all, I'd say I screwed up royally, because only in my 401-k did I derive benefits from my insight.

So I give myself an A+ for my analysis, and a C- for my execution. Or, more accurately, a C- for my ability to believe in my own foresight. So hurray for me. And shame on me.

Thus ends today's combination of self-adulation and self-loathing. Draw from it what you can.