Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

High/Low

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Not exactly an electrifying day, was it? I'm very lightly positioned right now. Across all my portfolios, I've got 95 positions, which for me is practically "flat". I'm not going to rush into the market until it has a clearer direction.

To my mind, that direction is going to be very easy to see, but unfortunately only after certain upper and lower boundaries are breached. Below I've put three key charts – the NASDAQ Composite, the OIH ETF (energy), and the S&P 500 index. I've put two numbers – the bullish threshold and the bearish threshold – for each one. Once these figures are exceeded, it will be a lot more obvious which way the market is headed. I've also tinted in the bars from where I've drawn these figures.

0701-$COMPQ

0701-$OIH

0701-$SPX

It's interesting to note that, over the past seven calendar quarters, six of them were down, and only the most recent one was up. My feeling is that September/October is going to provide fantastic fireworks for the bears. Until then, it's just one day at a time.

Ninety-Nine Bottles of Bear on the Wall

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I went through all my charts last night and in the wee hours of this morning, and I've lined up 99 bearish opportunities. Given the strong bullish bias of pre-July 4 trading, I might hold off until tomorrow to jump in with both feet, but there is a wealth of great shorts waiting to be had.

I'll also mention that I've succumbed to the advice of Slopers and exited my TBT long this morning. I took a small four-figure profit on the trade, but I recognize the danger of the H&S pattern and no longer have this position.

0701-tbt

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