Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Good-Bye, Q2!

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Well, the bulls managed to pull off another monthly gain – the 4th one in a row. Do you want to know how much the surging economy and trillions of dollars of new cash poured into the market pushed the S&P higher? You do? OK – – 2/100ths of one percent. In other words, 0.02%. Way to go, bulls!

I keep saying how I'm not making any money in this market, but I just ran the numbers, and June wasn't that terrible. I was up 2.9% in my big account, and about 4% in my 401-k. Nothing to write home about, but not bad either.

I am really glad Q2 2009 is history. The bulls had every possible advantage thrown their way, and what I see before me on the monthly chart is exactly what I thought I would see mid-month when I wrote about the loss of momentum: just look at the chart and you'll see. March, April, and May were all gifts from the gods (or at least gifts from Obama) to our bullish friends. June was utterly limp. I am highly confident July 2009 is going to be the first down month for the S&P since February.

0630-months

I am going to try to recapture some glory on water skis this afternoon. Congratulations, Slopers, for making it through this quarter. I think we're going to start to have a much easier time starting tomorrow, in spite of pre-July 4th being historically hugely biased toward the bull side.

The Waves

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First off, the folks at Elliott Wave International wrote me today saying they are kicking off a 17-city How to Trade in a Fast-Moving Bear Market tour from September 4, 2009 to February 2, 2010. You might want to click on the link to see if they'll be anywhere near you, since I really like their work and – – assuming this danged bear market fires its engines up sometime again – – I have found Elliott Wave to be helpful as we stairstep our way down.

Second – speaking of the same folks – here is a graph from their Short Term Update tonight (they allow me to occasionally republish graphs from time to time here) which I like:

0629-nasdaq

As usual, click on the graph to see a bigger version – but it does a nice job labeling the past year of market activity. The horizontal line marked as a .382 retracement is the crucial line in the sand. Either the countertrend rally has exhausted itself (which would agree with the "2" labeling), or what we experienced over nearly four months was simply the first phase of a more hefty push higher.

My money is at least oriented toward the notion of a meaningful "B" wave down, but not cracking March's lows yet. What would harm me the most – and this is why I'm relatively lightly positioned right now! – would be a swift rise above that line, prompted either by (1) end-of-quarter window dressing on June 30 or (2) a surprisingly bullish jobs report Thursday morning.

You know what three words are next………..we shall see!

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