Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
I'm taking Mrs. Bear out for our anniversary tonight, so I'll leave you with this graph of copper (this borders on a non-sequitur, I realize, but still……….)
The point being that I think commodities have plenty room left to fall. This graph nicely shows how the first half of 2009 was injected with a lot of optimism about green shoots.
To paraphrase No Country for Old Men……
What you got ain't nothin new. This market's hard on people. You can't
stop what's coming. It ain't all waiting on you. That's vanity.
Congratulations again to the bears for another great day. Things are going really well.
Now, before we get too carried away, let's have a bit of balance. First let's take a look at the "good news" for the bears via the graph below:"
We are right at the cusp of falling to about 810 on the S&P (about a 10% fall from these levels). This would obviously be very good for those holding puts and shorts.
Take an equally strong look at this graph of the /ES, shown on a daily basis (as opposed to the minute bar basis used above on the cash index)
The fact is that we haven't broken the neckline yet, and we're right at that fan line. There's every possibility – even probability, at this point – that the market will noodle around the fan line, pushing higher along that tinted area, giving the bulls hope and the bears frustration.
I'm sort of leaning toward Wednesday bouncing higher, even though I didn't take any profits at all today (in fact, I added to positions), but I do think ultimately we will break that neckline and make a nice move lower.
There was a time not long ago that I thought the only asset class that had a chance of making some upward movement was commodities. Even that prospect is shot now. I think basically everything under the sun is going to go down in value in the coming months and years. Welcome to deflation-land.