Good News and Meh News

By -

Congratulations again to the bears for another great day. Things are going really well.

Now, before we get too carried away, let's have a bit of balance. First let's take a look at the "good news" for the bears via the graph below:"


We are right at the cusp of falling to about 810 on the S&P (about a 10% fall from these levels). This would obviously be very good for those holding puts and shorts.


Take an equally strong look at this graph of the /ES, shown on a daily basis (as opposed to the minute bar basis used above on the cash index)


The fact is that we haven't broken the neckline yet, and we're right at that fan line. There's every possibility – even probability, at this point – that the market will noodle around the fan line, pushing higher along that tinted area, giving the bulls hope and the bears frustration.

I'm sort of leaning toward Wednesday bouncing higher, even though I didn't take any profits at all today (in fact, I added to positions), but I do think ultimately we will break that neckline and make a nice move lower.